Monday, February 13, 2012

Tiger Still Getting Out Of The Woods

Mickelson wins 40th career title 

Yesterday, the PGA Tour was set up with a confluence of events that its investors pray for, at least when it’s possible. For just the tenth time ever, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson were paired together on a Sunday, just a few shots off the 54-hole lead held by Charlie Wi. This is basically what TV execs and American golf sponsor dream about. The model for American sports investment, in this area, revolves around the promotion of stars. In other sports, this is relatively easy to do. There’s a consistent schedule. Barring injury, the stars play.

Golf doesn’t have it so easy. Luckily, there are enough fans now that every WGC and Tour event is broadcast. Beyond the fans this is also thanks to the partnership between CBS Sports and the Golf Channel. But there are only a handful of “promotion worthy” stars in the game and they don’t play every week. If you’re wondering who these people are, watch for when the CBS broadcast first kicks off, when the play the opening video montage. You see Woods and Phil. You’ll also see Rory McIlroy, Luke Donald, Rickie Fowler, and Dustin Johnson. This represents an obvious mix of established superstars, well known faces, and the up and coming generation. My guess is that this was also carefully established so that on any given week, at least one of these players will be seen on TV over the weekend.
Two legends of the game, Phil wins this round.

The fortune of having Tiger and Phil in the second to last pairing on a Sunday gunning for a title has remarkably happened just nine times before yesterday. Before yesterday, Tiger had won the tournament three times to Phil’s one, despite the fact that Mickelson has scored better than him five consecutive times. Yesterday at Pebble Beach, Lefty upped the ante and then some.

Tiger is clearly getting the Friday through Saturday thing figured out, but hasn't yet regained the inner ninja status he once held on Sunday. My friend Steven made the good point that he’s always been best as a front runner. I can see that, especially given Tiger's comments after the round yesterday, when he said he thought he'd need a 67 or 68 to win. You can think like that when you have the lead, but not when you're behind. Starting with Johnson Wagner a month ago, the last four PGA Tour winners entered the final round at least four shots off the lead. You can run the numbers when you have the lead and say, “OK, the best round out there today is a 65. I have a three shot lead. I need to shoot a 67 to win.”

Granted, you can’t come from behind to win without a little help from the front runner. Brandt Snedeker only won at Torrey Pines because Kyle Stanley melted down on the 18th. Stanley himself only won the following week because Spencer Levin dropped shot after shot down the stretch at TPC Scottsdale. If Charlie Wi doesn’t 4-putt the first hole at Pebble yesterday, he finishes in a playoff with Phil. Wi also lipped out an easy par tapper later in the round. If he makes that, Phil’s 64 comes up one stroke short (although, the case can easily be made that in such a scenario Phil surely would have gone for it on 18, instead of safely hitting a 4 iron off the tee).

Tiger looked unconfident and overwhelmed all day yesterday. In short, he’s not quite there yet. In the final round, Woods looked as he did through all four rounds of the Bridgestone Invitational last August, his first event since withdrawing from the Players with an injury that kept him out of the game for several months. It was the same way he looked the following week when he struggled to find par at Atlanta Athletic Club. His confidence is on the rise and anyone who saw him in the first three rounds at Pebble could tell.

Yet still, in Dubai he shared the lead with Robert Rock, a relatively unknown Englishman who was still a club pro when Woods was winning his 14th major in 2008. This was the type of matchup where the inferior (supposedly, Rock) falters under the weight of Tiger’s (and his fans’) presence. Instead, Rock played a steady round while Tiger failed to muster anything of a challenge. This weekend, the media was ready to write up the “he’s back!” article, only to see him stumble on the 7th and never recover. To his credit, Tiger reminded everyone that he won back at the Chevron a few months ago, and that’s a win in his book, no matter what anyone else says. This is a point I emphasized myself.

I can't believe Lefty's turnaround. When I was watching him at Torrey Pines, he looked downright terrible. Awful. But then he comes out and shoots a 64 on Sunday at Pebble for his 40th win. That's Phil, I guess. Remember, though, last year he bagged a win at the Houston Open and was more or less irrelevant for the rest of the year, save his almost run at the British in July. Nick Faldo argued that at the age of 41, a guy like Mickelson is only going to get up for the majors, and maybe the tournaments that mean something to him. I guess that makes sense, either way Phil showed us once again that when he's on, he's the best in the world.

Maybe it’s just because he’s been a pro for so long that one or two little things is all it takes. When watching him at Torrey, I felt it was irrelevant that he changed his putting grip given that the issue he was having was finding the green in the first place. Phil calls his coach, Butch Harmon, down to Phoenix last week to sort it out. Butch makes one adjustment with Lefty’s back knee and viola – four rounds under par, a closing 64, and his 40th career victory. It’s not that I just can’t believe the turnaround as much as it’s just flat out scary. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again now, if Phil is on at Augusta, no one has a chance in hell at beating him. Period. Not even Woods. And I think you guys know how I feel about Tiger.

Nevertheless, I still think Tiger makes a serious run at Augusta in April. In some poetic way, it just makes sense that he’d break his slump by winning at the same place he did way back in 1997 when he roared onto the scene. With Mickelson playing his best though, it could well be a difficult task. Perhaps they’ll be paired together on that final Sunday? We can only hope.