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| 17th hole at the Highlands Course. |
Last chance at major glory
On Thursday, the best golfers in the world will congregate at Atlanta Athletic Club’s Highlands Course for the 93rd PGA Championship. Recently, the golf year’s final major has been the site of its most dramatic finishes. Two years ago at Hazeltine, Y.E. Yang took down Tiger Woods in a final round for the ages. Last year a costly penalty by Dustin Johnson put late chargers Bubba Watson and Martin Kaymer in a playoff, eventually won by the young German. We had a nail biting finish at the Masters. While Rory McIlroy’s dominant performance at the U.S. was remarkable, it left something to be desired in the drama department. The British was full of good stories and good cheer, but Johnson going OB on 14 effectively sealed the deal for winner Darren Clarke. I say it’s time for another nail biter.
Sure enough, David Toms won the PGA Championship ten years ago at the Highlands Course in a dramatic final pairing battle over Phil Mickelson. In what’s been called “the greatest lay up in major history,” Toms elected to use three strokes to get on the green on the long par 4 18th hole. He then dropped a 12-foot par putt for the win and the lowest stroke total (265) in major championship history. Back then, Phil hadn’t won a major yet and was quickly becoming that tragic character à la Greg Norman. We all knew he was too talented and four majors victories later we can say we were right. Still, I think Lefty has some unfinished business in Georgia.
In 2001, the Highlands Course played as a par 70 at 7,213 yards. Atlanta Athletic Club hired Rees Jones, Inc. to remodel the course for this year’s tournament. Rees Jones also did the makeover for Congressional, so it will be the second major championship course played in 2011 on one of their remodels. The course will still play as a par 70 but has been lengthened to 7,467 yards. There isn’t a drastic change in strategy. The most crucial change is the placement of the bunkers that have been moved from the 240-270 range to the 280-340 range, depending on the hole. Water hazards have been expanded as well.
It seems that the one thing AAC has done is not try to kid itself and this is revealed in subtle changes that will at the very least make most golfers think twice about their club selection. In this respect, the Highlands Course maintains its former character. There are tough holes, but there are also scoring holes. With the talent that’s out there, this means we will probably see a lot of birdies, maybe some eagles, but also some bogeys or doubles. The greens figure to factor here, but I’m also thinking the water will too. The remodeled course features a grass combination that does not exist anywhere else in the world, with Diamond Zoysia fairways, Tifton 10 Bermuda rough, and Champion Ultradwarf Bermuda greens, a long way of saying each surface is a different type of grass and it’s all very fancy.
AAC also redesigned their fertilizing and drainage systems, as well as installing computer monitored watering. This is an effort to minimize the effects of the Georgia heat on the course, which by all accounts has been sweltering this summer. Head groundskeeper Ken Magnum admitted that fifteen under par (Toms in 2001) was probably too high for a major and that the new improvements hopefully will translate to a winner somewhere between eight and ten under. I think that’s a completely realistic goal, especially for a PGA Championship.
As I indicated, not a lot has drastically changed with the holes themselves beyond moving bunkers. The first hole has 25 more yards but still plays as an early scoring opportunity. Players will need to take advantage, as the second and third holes are long, difficult par 4’s at 512 and 475 yards, respectively. With a new tee adding 15 yards, the fourth hole now plays as 219-yard par 3 with water in front, to the left, and behind the green. The fifth hole was the easiest hole in the 2001 PGA and not much has changed. 25 extra yards off the tee will make it a little harder for everyone to go for it, while cross-bunkers at 100 yards in the fairway will force players to decide where to lay up safely. Six and seven are short, relatively easy holes as well. A new tee on the 467-yard par 4 eighth hole enhances the dogleg and keeps the water in the golfer’s mind. Par will be a good score there. The ninth hole presents one more scoring opportunity before making the turn.
The back nine opens with a couple mid-range par 4s. The tee shot is open on 10, but plays to a tricky, three-tiered green protected by bunkers. The eleventh hole, like the eighth, presents a scoring opportunity only with a well placed tee shot around the dogleg. The final par 5 comes at 12, which has added some length, but still plays downhill. For these guys, it’s no problem. Anyone going for it still has plenty of water to contend with down the right side, but either way, players should be able to take advantage of this hole. The thirteenth is the shortest par 4 but also the tightest hole on the course, so any wayward tee shot or approach will instantly make par a great score. And the fun is pretty much over after that.
The closing stretch at the Highlands Course is very difficult. Anyone in red numbers walking off the thirteenth green should be thinking about pars the rest of the way out because there are surely going to be bogeys during this stretch. The fourteenth is a 468-yard par 4 where the players must stay left off the tee. Anyone missing right has a very small chance of being on the green in two. The undulating green is also considered the hardest on the course. The par 3 fifteenth played as the second hardest hole in 2001. Depending on the tees and pin placements, it can play anywhere from 227 to 260 yards. The green is protected by water in the front and on the right, and by bunkers left and back. It has been a crucial hole in the past. In 1976, Jerry Pate stung a 2 iron to 8 feet on his way to winning the U.S. Open. And in 2001, David Toms made a hole in one during the third round on his way to 65 and a two stroke 54-hole lead.
Uphill and narrow, the sixteenth hole has been lengthened by 35 yards to play as a 476-yard par 4. A perfect tee ball still leaves a mostly blind approach to a very slanted green. Then the par 3 fun continues. The seventeenth plays at 207 yards but entirely over water to the green. Unless players stay well right of the green, anything mishit will end up in the water. It’s dry beyond but anyone long will have to pitch downhill to the green that slopes towards the water. That leaves the 507-yard par 4 18th hole. The tee shot plays to the widest fairway on the course but the lake cuts the green from the fairway leaving an incredibly demanding approach, especially for short hitters, who may just have to lay up as David Toms did. There’s a reason why this hole plays as a par 5 for AAC members. As Toms demonstrated ten years ago, par is very good score on the closing hole.
Inaccuracy during the final stretch will erase most good rounds. It’s pretty clear that the strategy at the Highlands Course will require alternating aggressiveness with conservative choices. Players should try to get a birdie on one, then “hold serve” through the fourth hole. The fifth hole through the thirteenth hole is the easiest stretch on the golf course. While there are still some tricky holes in there (like 8 and 11, where a bad tee shot makes par a good score), there are crucial scoring opportunities at 5,7,9, and 12. It will depend on how the PGA decides to tackle the tee locations and pin placements, but I think the winner will be around 10 under par.
Likes, Might-Be’s, and Wild Cards
I’m going with a slightly different take here than with my previous articles. Here’s a brief rundown of who I like, who I think might be a contender, and who I think has an outside shot at defying the odds and shocking the world.
Like: Jason Day
16 events, 2 missed cuts, 8 Top-10s
Majors: T-2 at Masters, 2nd place at U.S. Open, T-30 British Open
Most recent: T-4 at WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
Day already has two second place finishes in majors this year. He has been one of the most consistent golfers all year and seems to do better when the stakes are higher and the field is better. He comes in hot after a great tournament at Firestone. He has the game and the mindset to win at AAC.
Like: Rickie Fowler
19 events, 4 missed cuts, 4 Top-10s
Majors: T-38 at Masters, CUT at U.S. Open, T-5 at British Open
Most recent: T-2 at WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
Fowler doesn’t have the record that Day does, but his play at the British opened everyone’s eyes. Fowler certainly has the type of game to win a major and like Day, he comes in hot after a great performance at Firestone shooting four rounds in the 60s. He has the power to mitigate longer holes, and the way he hits his long irons could give him a distinct advantage on the difficult par 3s.
Like: Luke Donald
13 events, 2 missed cuts, 9 Top-10s, 1 win (WGC-Accenture)
Majors: T-4 at Masters, T-45 at U.S. Open, CUT at British Open
Most recent: T-2 at WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
While his recent performances in majors leave something to be desired, there’s arguably no one having a better year than Donald. He isn’t a bomber, but has some of the best control game and putting out there. He knows when to be aggressive and when to play safe. I think being able to control that will be huge for any winner at the Highlands Course, as it was for Toms in 2001.
Might Be: Dustin Johnson
16 events, 3 missed cuts, 5 Top-10s
Majors: T-38 at Masters, T-23 at U.S. Open, T-2 at British Open
Most recent: T-48 at WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
It’s pretty obvious at this point that Johnson has the power to take down any course. And when his ball striking and putting are on, he’s right in the thick of it. In fact, Johnson has been in the final pairing on Sunday in three of the last six majors. He has shown the ability to forget his meltdown at Pebble and grounding penalty at Whistling. Now he needs to forget going OB at Royal St. Georges. He did not have a great outing at Firestone, but seems to be a different player at majors. If he’s wild off the tee, the Highlands Course will make him pay.
Might Be: Rory McIlroy
9 events, 1 missed cut, 4 Top-10s, 1 win (U.S. Open)
Majors: T-15 at Masters, WON at U.S. Open, T-25 at British Open
Most recent: T-6 at WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
I’m making the bold statement that Rory McIlroy might be a contender this week. He might win. I just don’t have the confidence to put him in my “Like” category. We all know about his talent, we all know that this course plays into his strengths. I don’t think it’s because Tiger is in the tournament this time. I think that and the expectations are factors. But I just like history here, even though that will cause my brother to blow a gasket. History suggests it will take young Rory a few years to win another major. Of course, records are made to be broken, and usually people like Rory break them. Still, this week is a maybe in my estimation.
Might Be: Phil Mickelson
16 events, 1 missed cut, 5 Top-10s, 1 win (Shell Houston Open)
Majors: T-27 at Masters, T-54 at U.S. Open, T-2 at British Open
Most recent: T-48 at WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
You have to give Phil a decent chance in any major. He reaffirmed his golf talent by finishing tied for second at the British, an event where he typically struggles. Changes aside, Lefty knows how to score low at the Highlands Course. While he lost to Toms by one stroke in 2001, he still had four rounds in the 60s. However, I have to place Phil in the “might be” category. Two weeks ago at Greenbrier, he missed his first cut of the year and followed it up with a lackluster +3 finish at Firestone. The veteran doesn’t come in hot, but he still might be a factor.
Wild Card: David Toms
16 events, 4 missed cuts, 5 Top-10s, 1 win (Crowne Plaza)
Majors: T-24 at Masters, CUT at U.S. Open, DNP in British Open
Most recent: T-9 at WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
As defending champion at the Highlands Course, I have to give the veteran Toms a wild card nod. He bagged a win this year at the end of a string of six consecutive events where he finished three times in the top-3 and no worse than T-24. After a brief break from competition during the middle of the summer, Toms returned with a strong nine under performance at Firestone. Toms is not a long hitter, so some of the changes might actually affect his chances more than a power guy like Phil. I guess it wouldn’t be an utter shock if Toms finishes in the top-5 or better, but I think it’s an outside chance nonetheless.
Wild Card: Tiger Woods
7 events, 0 missed cuts, 2 Top-10s
Majors: T-4 at Masters, DNP in U.S. Open, DNP in British Open
Most recent: T-37 at WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
Besides making a run at the Masters and finishing tied for fourth, Tiger doesn’t have a whole lot to go on as far as his results are concerned. He does have 14 major championships, though, as well as his health back. Getting back to 100% was obviously priority number one, but now comes everything else. As Woods showed last week, that can be a tricky process. On some holes, he showed flashes of the Tiger we knew. On others, he showed flashes of the Tiger we’ve come to know. We don’t know which one will show up this week. If it’s the one that birdied three of the last four holes on Sunday, it could be a special tournament. Woods has the chance to tie Walter Hagen and Jack Nicklaus with a record five PGA Championship wins.
Wild Card: Bubba Watson
17 events, 1 missed cut, 3 Top-10s, 2 wins (Farmers, Zurich)
Majors: T-38 at Masters, T-63 at U.S. Open, T-30 at British Open
Most recent: T-21 WGC-Bridgestone Invitational
Watson lost to Martin Kaymer in a playoff for last year’s PGA, so he has got some motivation there. He’s won twice on Tour this season but has lost some of his touch lately. Last week was his best finish since winning the Zurich Classic in early May. Most of this seems to be with the putter, a club that has always been fickle for Bubba. He has all the power and creativity needed to navigate the course this week, but if he can’t putt well it won’t amount to anything. He nearly won last year, not necessarily because his putting was on, but because his ball striking and driving were really on. He needs one or the other and rarely has both. Because of this, I think he has just an outside chance to contend.
Runner Up to Likes: Steve Stricker. Tough call, but got to draw the line somewhere. In this case, it was three. Still, I’m pullin’ for ya, Strick!
Runner Up to Might Be’s: Nick Watney. He hasn’t played particularly well lately, close call next to Lefty, but I give Phil the edge.
Runner Up to Wild Card: Adam Scott. He won decisively last week, but the problem is he won last week. No one ever seems to be a real contender if they win the week before a major. Plus, his caddy could now actually be a distraction.
Sources: PGA.com, PGATour.com, atlantaathleticclub.org, reesjonesinc.com, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
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