How Bad Is The New England Patriots Defense?

The final score of yesterday’s anticipated game between the New England Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers made it seem a lot closer than it felt. Coming off the bye week, the Patriots appeared flat and rusty. Ben Roethlisberger led a calculating open drive for a touchdown, giving the Steelers a lead that they would not relinquish for the entire game. Tom Brady’s offense could not get any sort of momentum going and New England lost its second game of the season, falling into a tie for first place in the AFC East with the Buffalo Bills.

New England’s defense has constantly been under scrutiny and yesterday was no exception. On Saturday, they placed Ras-I Dowling on season-ending injured reserve. They were once again without the services of Jerod Mayo. Earlier in the week, Coach Bill Belichick surprisingly released veteran cornerback Leigh Bodden. Despite injuries and personnel changes, one theme has remained consistent each week with this defense. They are highly vulnerable to the pass attack, averaging 323 yards allowed in the air through seven games. Roethlisberger operated with ease yesterday, piling up 365 passing yards while throwing for two touchdowns. Even when the New England pass rush was able to pressure Big Ben, more often than not he found open receivers.

Granted, this is an aspect of the game Roethlisberger has always excelled at over the years. Nonetheless, the Patriots secondary had little in the way of answers to stop Pittsburgh’s aerial assault yesterday. They did get credit for an interception, but it was on a terrible pass from Roethlisberger, and it was essentially the only mistake he made all day. The Steelers were 10/16 in third down situations. Of those ten conversions, three were over ten yards (11,12, and 15). Though seldom used, the Steelers backfield combined for 97 yards on 21 carries. In this aspect, the Patriots defense played fairly well and the longest Pittsburgh run was just 18 yards.

But just how bad was New England’s defense yesterday? When you look at their overall numbers, it is easy to see why they have been a constant scapegoat. Consider this though, the CBS broadcast team pointed out that the Patriots had been down in yesterday’s game for almost as long as they had been down in their first six games combined. New England’s offense has been so good that for the vast majority of the season, they’ve been able to play with the lead. That usually means opposing teams have to play catch up and playing catch up in the NFL means throwing the ball.

That may account for some of the overall story, but yesterday the Steelers played (and passed) with the lead. They made 23 of their 29 first downs on passing plays. New England clearly has a lot of work to do here. Taking away Roethlisberger’s creative ability doesn’t change the fact that the Patriots still have a weak pass rush overall. While the secondary doesn’t get a lot of help in this sense, they still have failed to limit yards and the length of opposing team’s drives. However, to say that the Patriots defense lost the game yesterday would be wrong. To say that they failed to keep their team in the game while being down would also be wrong.

They did allow Pittsburgh to get into the red zone five times, but the Steelers only converted those opportunities into touchdowns twice. As bad as it seemed, the Patriots went into the locker room at half time down by just seven points. The defense held the Steelers on four second half drives to just two field goals, and that was after being on the field in the first half for over 21 minutes. If you had told me the Patriots would hold Pittsburgh to 25 points before the game, I can guarantee I would have bet that New England would win, which means you would now have my money.

We need to face facts. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense weren’t just anemic they were awful. It is difficult for New England fans and commentators to wrap their minds around the idea that Brady can have a terrible game. Yesterday should serve as sufficient proof that this is possible. He put on a show last time he was at Heinz Field. Credit the Dick LeBeau and the Steelers defense for coming up with a game plan that basically shut down not just Brady’s favorite receiving targets, but also his ability to create rhythm. New England had just 14 first downs yesterday and five of those came because of penalties. They attempted only 12 running plays against a team that has been susceptible to run this year.

I’m not trying to suggest that this Patriots defense is good. They are ugly, but effective. Yesterday was a perfect example. There were errors, yes, and they looked awful defending the pass, yes, but they still held Pittsburgh to just 23 points. In the second half, they gave Tom Brady plenty of time to mount the comeback, but instead, found themselves on the field for another 18 minutes. Getting blown out raises concerns, but that did not happen yesterday. For all the yards Pittsburgh gained, they still came away with few points, relatively speaking. This has been a common theme. Though being last in the NFL in yards allowed per game by a wide margin, they rank 17^th at 22.9 points allowed per game.

New England’s defense is not quite as bad as many are making them out to be. The numbers from yesterday’s game make it easy to pick on them, but through seven games it should be pretty clear that the Patriots live and die by the offense. In their Week 3 loss to Buffalo, Brady had far from a great game (by his standards) throwing four interceptions, one of which was returned for a touchdown. Yesterday he wasn’t able to establish any consistency. Most of the credit there belongs to Pittsburgh, but the point is any team that is able to stifle Brady will give themselves a chance to win.

If the Patriots lose a shootout in which Tom Brady doesn’t throw any interceptions, then there may be cause to raise concerns. But Belichick defenses have a knack for getting better over the course of the season. So far, when the offense isn’t mowing through the opposition, the defense has been able to keep their team in the game. Chances are good that this trend will continue. There’s plenty of football left, folks.

Sources: ESPN.com

Tony La Russa’s Gaffe and Ron Washington’s Genius

Heading into the 2011 World Series, the St. Louis Cardinals were favored to prevail against the Texas Rangers for two reasons. First, they came in as the hottest team in baseball. The Redbirds posted a red-hot September, going 18-8 and snatching the NL Wild Card by one game over the Atlanta Braves. They proceeded to knock off the heavily favored Philadelphia Phillies in the division series. With timely hitting and bullpen pitching, they were able to win yet another series in which they were considered the underdog against the Milwaukee Brewers. Many credited Cardinals manager Tony La Russa for critical strategic moves and overall leadership. So, Texas appeared outmatched by a team coming in playing the best baseball and having the best manager.

There was so much talk about this “mismatch” at the helm that Rangers manager Ron Washington was forced to admit that he probably couldn’t outwit his managerial opponent. So much talk, in fact, that what happened in the 8^th inning of Game 5 in Texas was almost inevitably going to happen. La Russa being this good made people forget that things almost never go to plan, which is actually the basis for him being that good in the first place. We call that a circular argument. Here’s why. La Russa’s use of his bullpen in the NCLS made him look like a strategic whiz. It made everyone remember there’s a reason why he’s third on the all-time wins list, won Manager of the Year four times and the World Series twice. The problem is that he only appeared this way because his starting pitchers couldn’t get out of the fifth inning against the Brewers.

No matter how shrewd you are, there’s no way you’re not going to make a mistake, because things rarely go as planned. The only reason the 8^th inning of Game 5 blew up in La Russa’s face is because of a misplaced idea that he was definitely going to make all the right moves. The biggest mistake La Russa made in Game 5 was actually in the 9^th inning, when he made a “one run game” play during a two run game. You have a runner on first with no outs and your five best hitters due up. Why put on a hit-and-run? I know that’s The Machine up at bat, easily the best hitter in the game, but it still makes no sense. The hit-and-run is designed to get the runner on first to third base, setting up the sacrifice fly for a run.

It makes sense to trade an out for a run when it’s the 9^th inning and you’re down by one run. But they weren’t down by one run. Furthermore, let’s say that Pujols still strikes out, which I think is fair to say given that Rangers closer Neftali Feliz basically threw an unhittable 3-2 pitch. In fact, let me pause a moment to give Feliz some due credit. He didn’t back down from the game’s best hitter, instead, put a 98 MPH fastball just off the plate, but close enough to it that Pujols still had to swing. Perfect pitch. But back to the scenario: so Albert strikes out, still one on, now one out. If you’re La Russa and the Cardinals, you still have Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman due up. A home run still ties the game and those two combined for 53 on the season. Should they get on somehow, you have David Freese and Yadier Molina to follow. Freese was their best bat in the NCLS and Molina led team in batting average on the season.

You know in a full count to Pujols that Feliz is going all fastball, so even if Allen Craig gets a good jump, catcher Mike Napoli still has a great chance to throw him out. This is exactly what happened and instead of having a chance to tie the game, Matt Holliday comes up with two outs and nobody on base. This was a costly error – very costly – especially given that it made almost zero strategic sense. While this was talked about, it still rode a back seat to the 8^th inning. I suppose it makes sense because this was the inning that Texas took the lead. The problem for me is that what happened in the eighth was entirely spun as La Russa’s gaffe, whereas the real credit should go to Ron Washington’s genius.

How could you not love playing for this guy?

Throughout this postseason, Washington has repeatedly been praised for being a great “player’s manager,” but criticized for his strategic prowess. The praise, I think, is certainly deserved. The criticism, however, is not. Great managers work with what they’re given and try not to “overmanage” (Which by the way is exactly what La Russa did in Game 5). One thing you must give Ron Washington credit for is sticking with what is working, and what has been working all season. Sometimes that is great managing, as it certainly is in this case. The star of the World Series right now is catcher/first baseman Mike Napoli. He’s simply been pounding the ball. He’s hitting lefties, righties, doesn’t matter. From July 4^th to September 28th, Napoli hit .378 with 20 homeruns, 50 RBI, and .457 on-base percentage. Many have wondered why Ron Washington has such a hot hitter routinely batting 7^th or 8^th in the lineup.

The simple answer is that the Rangers lineup is loaded with talent. Leadoff batter Ian Kinsler has always thrived in that position and has great speed – no need to mess with things there. Elvis Andrus is another speedy, hits-for-average type of player, a great fit for the two-hole. After those two, you have Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, and Nelson Cruz. In that same 7/4-9/28 clip, Hamilton posted .300/15/54/.338, Beltre .331/21/62/.356 and Cruz .274/18/60/.317, not quite as high in average as Napoli, but in terms of production by no means far from him. These guys have been on a torrid pace for months and they’ve been doing so in more or less the same spots in the lineup. Why would Washington mess with that?

Reigning MVP Josh Hamilton is battling through injuries and clearly not himself, although he still drove in the winning run in Game 3. He continues to hit third in the lineup, though. Beltre also has been battling through nagging injuries for months, but remains in the fifth spot. Cruz, the ALCS MVP, hitting .364 and belting 6 home runs and 13 RBI in 6 games, continues to hit 6^th in the lineup. Napoli was in the seventh spot in the first three games, and hit eighth in games 4 and 5. Beyond the whole “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” idea of sticking with the same order, there is another facet of the subtle genius behind this offensive advantage.

Washington’s placement of Mike Napoli in the batting order effectively engineered the debacle that went down in the 8^th inning of Game 5. Managers rely on the bottom third of the order to provide easy matchups, leading to easy outs. First of all, there are no easy outs in this Texas lineup. When you have a bottom third go David Murphy-Napoli-Mitch Moreland, you have far from a typical 7-8-9 combination. You have to give Washington due credit for sticking with this plan. There might have been a miscommunication over the bullpen phone, and this may have been because of a raucous Texas crowd. But don’t forget that this matchup headache was completely generated by Washington’s decision to keep his batting order the same.

Marc Rzepczynski got a free pass from blame in Game 5 because as a left-handed specialist, his job is get opposing lefties out in spot situations. Am I really going to be the first person to say that he failed to cleanly field a catchable groundball? I know it’s not his “fault” that the he had to stay in and face Napoli because a right-hander wasn’t ready. You can fault La Russa and his bullpen coach all day for not anticipating the ensuing situation, but I still think the fact that Ron Washington left Napoli in the bottom of the lineup is much more relevant. It’s not an active move, so it’s easy to forget. But how can you assail Washington for an entire series for not having Napoli hitting third or fourth, and then when his reasoning for leaving him near the end of the order looks genius, chalk it up to La Russa mismanaging his bullpen? That completely avoids the fact that Napoli’s presence at eighth left La Russa with a matchup nightmare in the first place.

Ron Washington deserves a lot more credit than he is receiving. Let’s not forget that despite La Russa not having a right-hander ready, the situation still arose mainly because Rzepczynski failed to make a play pitchers are supposed to make. If he makes that play, pitches around Napoli, and strikes out Moreland to end the inning, La Russa gets credit for looking smart. Onus is always on the players. After all, the manager isn’t on the field making plays. It turned into a disaster only because Washington stuck with Napoli in the bottom of the lineup. Lastly, let’s remember that just because Napoli is facing Rzepczynski, doesn’t mean the ball is on a tee. Credit him for taking the ball the other way and credit Washington for forcing St. Louis into a tough position just because of how he set his lineup.

Sources: MLB.com, baseball-reference.com

Surprises Abound in NFL Through Week Six

I’m pretty sure you could have made this statement after a few weeks, or maybe even just one, nonetheless through six weeks it’s pretty obvious that the lockout never actually threatened the 2011 NFL season. I have to admit my doubts mostly stemmed from an acute bitterness, not so much towards the players or owners, but more towards the idea of no professional football. There’s a reason why this league is veritable goldmine, all you have to do is watch. It shouldn’t come as a shock that the real surprise is not that the games are happening, but what’s happening in them. For me there are three big surprises and they all happen to be in the NFC…

San Francisco 49ers: 5-1, 1^st place NFC West

Last year this division was the rag doll of the league, but those wishing to insult the NFC West might now find it prudent to hold their tongue. Under the helm of new head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers have made quite a statement through six games. Not surprisingly, success in the Bay is starting with defense, particularly against the run. They rank third in rushing yards allowed, surrendering just 74.7 yards per game. On top of that, they are the only team in the league that hasn’t surrendered a rushing touchdown yet. Their passing defense doesn’t rank quite as high in terms of yards allowed, but when you’re not allowing much on the run, you can bet with pretty good odds that the other team is going to throw the ball a lot. This helps explain why San Francisco ranks tied for fifth in the NFL with eight interceptions, and tied for third with 17 sacks.

In terms of total offense, the 49ers rank at 28^th in yards per game, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t things to be happy about. San Francisco’s offensive line isn’t just playing well, they’re playing mean and that can go a long way. Last Sunday, they had no problem stepping up to Ndamukong Suh and the other bad boys on Detroit’s defensive line. This is one of the reasons their offense flows through the running game. Lead back Frank Gore is in the top ten in virtually every rushing category and as a whole, the Niners are fifth in rushing yards. Concerns about quarterback Alex Smith are well deserved, but for now he seems to be doing fine. Maybe having a head coach who was a former QB is helping Smith find himself, or at the very least, preventing him from costing San Francisco wins.

The pass attack leaves something to be desired so far, but it’s not like Smith doesn’t have weapons in Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Josh Morgan, and Michael Crabtree. In Week 3, he threw for 291 yards and two touchdowns on the road against Philadelphia’s vaunted secondary. Last Sunday, he completed a clutch drive on a nice throw to Walker that handed the Lions their first loss of the year. Between 2009-2010, Smith threw 22 picks in 22 games, but through six games this season he’s thrown just two. That’s a promising sign. Besides, this team has shown its defense and special teams (Two return TDs for Ted Ginn, Jr. in Week 1) can score as well, which is one reason why despite their lack of yards, they are seventh in the NFL at 27.8 points per game.

The whole “Handshake-Gate” also made one final point immutably clear. Jim Harbaugh may be a jerk, but winning is winning and he clearly knows how to fire up his football team. Riding the emotions from the win and from their coach, the 49ers are poised to roll through the next portion of their schedule after this week’s bye. Three of their next four games are at home, with the one road game coming against a suspect Washington Redskins squad. Their toughest opponent in that stretch will probably be the New York Giants in Week 10. But it’s not outrageous to suggest that San Francisco can head into a big Week 12 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens with a 9-1 record.

Detroit Lions: 5-1, 2^nd place NFC North

Before last Sunday’s loss to San Francisco, the Detroit Lions were on a run of nine consecutive wins going back to last season. It’s going to be tough for the Lions to win this division with the way the Green Bay Packers are playing, and let’s not forget that it was actually the Chicago Bears who won the NFC North last season. Regardless, if Detroit remains on this pace it will boast its first winning record since 2000 and first playoff appearance since 1999.

Third year quarterback Matthew Stafford is leading the way, returning with a vengeance after playing in just three games in the 2010 season. Stafford is third in the NFL with 15 touchdown passes, trailing Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Calvin Johnson has caught nine of those TD passes, which leads the NFL, and he also ranks fifth in receiving yards. As a team, the Lions are ranked 8^th in the league with 277 passing yards per game, and 13^th in total yards per game. So far, the offense has been flowing completely through the passing game, although part of that is due to the fact that they’ve been behind in several games. When they got out ahead of Chicago in Week 5, running back Jahvid Best ran for a season high 163 yards.

Through six games, the Lions aren’t particularly standing out as a team in many other categories. They have a strong secondary that is tied for fifth in the NFL with eight interceptions and the longest pass they have surrendered went for 45 yards. The Lions boast a strong defensive line with Kyle Vanden Bosch, Ndamukong Suh, and Cliff Avril. They’ve shown susceptibility to the run game, but have racked up 14 sacks and done their fair share contributing to a team that’s allowing just 19 points per game, good for 7^th in the NFL. Numbers don’t speak to what’s been most impressive about this squad. Their two 20-point comeback wins weren’t just because of Stafford, particularly against Dallas in Week 4, when they picked Tony Romo twice in the third quarter for touchdowns. This team has been finding ways to win and making plays when they’re needed. That should go a long way.

As I mentioned before, the Lions’ only loss came to San Francisco in a fiercely fought game. They should be able to rebound next week against an Atlanta Falcons team that has been less than spectacular and is allowing a ton of yards in the air. After that they hit the road, facing a weak Broncos team in the midst of a quarterback change and a Bears squad they’ve already defeated. They’ll return to Ford Field for a favorable match up against Carolina. I see them going 3-1 over their next four games. That would put them at 8-2 going into a tough closing stretch, which features New Orleans, Oakland, San Diego, as well as two gams against the Packers. I’m a believer in this team and I see them making the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles: 2-4, 4^th place NFC East

Was the “Dream Team” just that? A dream? It appears that’s the case. The team that was supposed to steam roll its way to the Super Bowl has thus far failed to live up to the hype. I didn’t rate the Eagles as highly as most in the media, but I’m still shocked to see them in last place right now. Despite the fact that they’re in an early hole in a tough division, there’s still time to right the ship.

The media hype for Philadelphia largely stemmed from the idea that the moves they made in the offseason would resolve big problems on defense. Through six games, the numbers suggest otherwise. The Eagles finished 15^th in the NFL last season with 110.4 rushing yards allowed per game. So far in 2011, that number has gone up to 123.8, with six touchdowns surrendered. Signing Nnamdi Asomugha and acquiring Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie hasn’t decreased the amount of yards the Eagles are allowing in the air, either. In 2010, Philadelphia ranked tied for 29^th in the NFL with 31 touchdown passes allowed. They do have seven interceptions already in 2011, but opposing quarterbacks have also thrown for 11 touchdowns (bear in mind four of those seven picks were gift-wrapped by Rex Grossman this past Sunday).

Going into this season, there weren’t a whole lot of concerns for the Eagles on offense. With the likes of quarterback Michael Vick, running back LeSean McCoy, and receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, they are supremely talented. Currently, they rank third in the league with 441.7 total yards per game. Between McCoy and Vick, the rushing attack leads the NFL with 170 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. Unfortunately, there are still problems. The Eagles lead the league in both fumbles lost and interceptions thrown, meaning a good portion of those 441 yards in every game have been lost due to turnovers. Eight of those interceptions belong to Michael Vick. He threw just six in 12 games last year.

What all this amounts to is not that they made the wrong moves, or that those moves won’t pay off, but just that they haven’t yet. The numbers don’t exactly explain their record, either. Their four game losing streak started with a highly anticipated game in Atlanta, Vick’s first since returning to the NFL. I had the Falcons all the way in that game, for the sole reason that they didn’t want Vick to show them up in their own stadium. The Falcons moved on after he went to prison and they wanted to prove that. Even then, the Eagles still could have won that game if Jeremy Maclin held onto a crucial pass in the fourth quarter.

Following that game, they lost a tough division matchup to the Giants, who desperately wanted to enact revenge after suffering a humiliating defeat in their final matchup in 2010. San Francisco may be for real, but that doesn’t mean the Eagles should have allowed them to come back from a 20-point deficit. Hardly anyone has been able to contain Fred Jackson this season; nonetheless Buffalo took advantage largely because of Vick’s four interceptions in that game. But things are looking up, at least for now. They head into a much needed bye week on a winning note, though; this was more due to Grossman than anything else. Beyond games against Arizona, Seattle, and Miami, the remaining schedule for the Eagles is pretty difficult. They will need to play much better football to avoid the dream becoming a nightmare.

A few other thoughts…

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins, and Pittsburgh Steelers are the only teams in the NFL with winning records who are scoring less than 20 points per game on average. Explanation? The Redskins and Steelers are boasting excellent defenses so far, allowing just 16.6 and 17.0 PPG, respectively. Tampa Bay is scoring 18.8 but surrendering 24.2, however, this discrepancy is due to a 48-3 blowout loss to San Francisco in Week 5. Average of their four wins: Bucs 22.5 points vs. opponents 17.5 points.

­ - The Buffalo Bills don’t surprise me, which is why they’re not included above. What they did in the second half of 2010, and even in some of their close losses in the first half, showed me that this team was clearly on the rise. While I’m sure this will be disputed my good friends who are Bills fans, let’s be honest, the wins over Oakland and New England had a heavy amount of luck involved. But I’ll put it this way; no one has won a shootout with Buffalo this year. They are second in the NFL averaging 31.3 PPG, just 1.5 under Green Bay. In the four games they’ve scored 30+ points, they’ve won. In the two games they haven’t, they’ve lost.

- The New York Jets are 3-0 vs. teams with losing records, 0-3 vs. teams with winning records. I’m just not quite sold on this squad yet, although as a Patriots fan that doesn’t really disappoint me all that much. In terms of yards per game, they rank 23^rd in passing and 31^st in running. I don’t doubt their secondary at all, but they are allowing teams to run all over them. The best team they’ve beaten this year is the Cowboys in Week 1 and that was mostly because Romo threw a terrible, untimely interception. The Jets will have to play well over the next five weeks to prove that they are a quality football team. Their next leg goes: vs. San Diego, @Buffalo, vs. New England, @Denver, vs. Buffalo.

Sources: ESPN.com, NFL.com

The Last Time That…

Amidst state of panic, finger pointing, and general classlessness surrounding the fallout of the Boston Red Sox’s epic September 2011 crash, there’s plenty to mull over. I can’t quite remember an offseason this dramatic, which is surprising to say, because the offseason is still only 15 days old. Around these parts, there has been zero recognition of the postseason beyond a few people pointing out that the Yankees did not survive the division series. This is sad because it has actually been quite entertaining. The Busch Squirrel, the Rangers back in the ALCS, Chris Carpenter’s Game 5 gem against Philly, and the emergence of Doug Fister as a top starting pitcher are among just a few of October’s storylines.

Leisurely viewing of October gives me time to point out the last time that…

…the Red Sox Won 90 or more games and didn’t make the postseason: 2002. That was Grady Little’s first season. It was also the first season John Henry & Co. ran the team. That year John Burkett drew the ire of Red Sox fans; he was 13-8 with 4.53 ERA. We all said, “that’s no good for a mid-rotation starter!” Of course, we didn’t have John Lackey yet. Interesting side note, even Frank Castillo posted a better ERA in 2002 than Lackey did this past year. Ouch.

…Theo Epstein took a leave of absence from the Red Sox: October 31^st, 2005 to January 19^th, 2006. Remember the gorilla suit? The next season Boston won just 86 games, the worst total under the Henry & Co. ownership. While Theo was gone, Boston traded for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell. I say if the 2012 Red Sox only win 86 games, it won’t be because Epstein left for the Cubs. But still, I thought it was worth noting.

…Tim Wakefield posted a season ERA under 4.00: 2002. Wow, bet you didn’t think I was going to bring that year up again but, BAM, there it is. That year Wakey posted a 2.81 ERA with 11 wins. He appeared in 45 games, making 15 starts. He turned 36 years old in the middle of that season. He just turned 45 years old. He gets this “untouchable” treatment, but I am not sure why. He’s coming off consecutive seasons of 5.00+ ERAs, oh, and he’s 45 – wait did I just say that?

...Daisuke Matsuzaka made 30 starts and threw 200+ innings: 2007. He was 26 years old and it was his first MLB season. He went 15-12 and was crucial in postseason for the Red Sox. It’s hard to argue how much money has been “lost” on the Dice-K venture because he was a huge part in winning a championship that year. I believe a healthy 31-year-old Matsuzaka can put up better numbers, leading to more wins, than an aging Wakefield.

…Jon Lester posted a season ERA under 3.21: Never! I suppose this is sort of a breach of the “last time that” etiquette, but it proves a valid point that nobody, at least that I know, is willing to admit. Jon Lester is not an ace. Yes, that still means we rightly expected him to be better than 1-3 with 5.40 ERA in September, but it doesn’t mean that he is a go-to big game pitcher. It’s all in the numbers: Lester’s 2011: 15-9, 3.47 Lester’s Average Season: 17-7, 3.53. He’s only 27, so it could still happen. I’m just pointing out it hasn’t yet.

…the Red Sox finished 3^rd or worse in the AL East in consecutive years: 1996 & 1997. It was a “two team” division in those days, but the two teams were New York and Baltimore. Tampa Bay has proven that it’s a “three team” division now. Making the postseason out of the AL East requires playing hard right through Game 162. Interestingly enough, 1997 was also the last time Boston finished below .500. Since 1992, AL East teams have won eight World Series, the most in the MLB. The next closest is the NL East with four.

...Kevin Youkilis hit 20+ HRs and drove in 90+ RBIs: 2008 & 2009. In both of those years Kevin was an All-Star and finished in the top six in MVP voting. He played in 145 and 136 games, respectively. In both of those years, the Red Sox made the postseason. Youkilis isn’t just “another guy” in this lineup; he’s the cleanup hitter. Last time I checked, that was pretty important. It might not show in the overall numbers, but this team suffered greatly when Dustin Pedroia was the only legitimate right-handed threat. I’m not submitting this as a new scientific law, but it appears a healthy Youk equals the Red Sox playing in October.

…Boston had a right-handed hitter play (primarily) in right field: 2004. This is probably coincidence. OK, it’s definitely coincidence. But still, I’m just saying, we all know what happened in 2004. Admittedly, the left-handed hitting Trot Nixon was still supposed to be the starting right fielder on that team and in the 48 games he did play, he hit for a .315 average. But it just so happens that J.D. Drew is likely on his way out and ever since opposing pitchers figured out that Josh Reddick can’t hit a breaking ball, he’s looked rather pedestrian. So I’m no GM but…

…someone managed the Red Sox for eight consecutive years: Joe Cronin. Actually, Cronin managed the Sox for 13 seasons from 1935 through 1947. One wonders why he kept the job for so long, though. He managed to take Boston to the World Series just one time, in 1946, and lost to the St. Louis Cardinals. Terry Francona was just the second manager in Red Sox history to win two World Series, joining Bill Carrigan (1915, 1916). Tito is in some pretty select company.

The natives are restless.

…I thought the “if we had won one more game” excuse was valid: Also never. When everything is going well, it is hard to notice what isn’t. All of a sudden, things take a turn for the worse and the townspeople are surrounding your house with torches and pitchforks. What this whole saga makes most clear to me is that it’s a wonder this organization even came within one game of making the postseason. There are real problems down at One Yawkey Way and they extend far beyond the players. Here’s the irony behind ownership’s handling of this entire debacle: after dragging Francona’s name through the mud, who the hell would want to manage this team and work for these idiots? They clearly think the demise was ultimately Terry’s fault. All they’ve done, though, is guarantee any incoming candidate that they will surely leave Boston someday with a knife in their back.

…John Henry tweeted he said: “…people seem to think we need scapegoats. We don’t.” That was on October 4^th. Since then he’s allowed, directly or not, plenty of scapegoating to happen. In the process, his coveted general manager jumped ship for the Chicago Cubs. Additionally, he’s somehow managed, again directly or not, to attract plenty of anger and criticism his way. This is shocking because the anger and criticism started in mid-September and it was mostly directed at Epstein. Rumors of beer, fried chicken, and video games focused that anger at the players. I guess he forgot just how much anger people in this city are capable of producing.

Sources: Baseball-Almanac.com, Baseball-Reference.com, MLB.com

2011-2012 NHL Season Preview and Picks

Hockey gears up for another exciting year

In the midst of October baseball madness, it is well worth noting that today marks the beginning of the NHL season. I take particular pleasure in this because it means that the Boston Bruins will officially be referred to as “Stanley Cup champions” or “defending champions” for the entirety of the regular season. After receiving some rather snazzy looking rings earlier in the week, the Bruins will hoist the 2010-2011 banner up into the rafters of the TD Garden tonight. This will be the final moment to celebrate their triumphant win over the Vancouver Canucks this past June. Then it will be back to business against the Philadelphia Flyers for game one of the 2011-2012 campaign.

The following represents my attempt to peg the top five teams in each conference. I’ve become more and more scared of writing these types of articles. In my experience, all I’m doing here is setting myself up for failure. But hey, let’s say I get all ten correct. Then how smart do I look? Exactly. Starting with the Eastern Conference in no particular order….

Boston Bruins

The Bruins are the odds on favorite to lead the Eastern Conference this year and why not? They are the defending champions and return this season almost entirely intact. Not surprisingly, the 43-year-old Mark Recchi opted for retirement. They also lost Michael Ryder to the Dallas Stars via free agency. Both players stepped up at key moments for the Bruins last year, but Captain Zdeno Chara still leads an essential core of players. New additions include veteran defenseman Joe Corvo. The Bruins hope he will help bolster a powerplay that struggled woefully at times last year.

Milan Lucic, David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron, and Brad Marchand will again lead the offense, while Tyler Seguin looks to have a breakout year in his sophomore season. And of course, the legendary Tim Thomas still minds the net. As defending champs, they’ll be in the crosshairs of most teams, but that doesn’t change the fact that this squad has a very good chance of being the first team to repeat as champions since the Detroit Red Wings in the late 90s.

Washington Capitals

Call me crazy, but I think Tomas Vokoun is just what Washington needs to make the jump from “really good” to “great.” I’ve always thought this veteran goaltender has tremendous talent, but never really had good teams in front of him. As Thomas showed last year for Boston, a little leadership between the pipes goes a long way up the ice. As far as the rest of the roster, not much has changed here either. The Capitals are still loaded with offensive talent, both with their forwards and their defenseman. In my opinion, they’ve had and still have the best hockey player in the world in Alex Ovechkin.

The Caps seem to be suffering from an identity crisis. They know they can be far and away the best offensive team in the NHL, but they’ve learned that doesn’t necessarily translate into playoff success. That is why Bruce Boudreau had people calling for his job last season. It is also why certain players, namely Alexander Semin, have drawn the ire of the media and fans as well. The best thing about these problems is that they are fixable. Doing this will probably become a step-by-step process throughout the season, but it’s not going to stop this team from finishing high in the Eastern Conference. Once the playoffs start, it’s another story. But if they get it resolved, watch out.

Buffalo Sabres

For two years in a row, the Sabres have reached the playoffs only to be bounced in the first round. For this reason, it’s easy to forget about Buffalo, but that is a grave mistake in my mind. On paper, I think they are one of the best teams in the East and possibly in the entire league. Buffalo was very active in the offseason. First and foremost, they inked forward Drew Stafford to a long-term deal. The University of North Dakota product scored 31 goals last year and seems just to keep getting better. They also signed forward Ville Leino, who had a breakout year with Flyers last season notching 53 points in 81 games.

Stafford and Leino are part of a talented offensive core that includes Thomas Vanek, Jason Pominville, and Brad Boyes, whom the Sabres acquired at the trade deadline last year. Buffalo made a big splash by signing defenseman Christian Ehrhoff, who was key to the Canucks reaching the Finals last year. They also acquired veteran Robyn Regehr who leaves the Flames after 11 seasons. Those two will help bolster a defense core that struggled last season. And of course, the main stud on this squad is still goaltender Ryan Miller. New additions to an already talented team should vault Buffalo from “one-and-done” to “serious contender.”

Pittsburgh Penguins

Want to know what scares every team in the league? The Pittsburgh Penguins lost Captain Sydney Crosby for the second half of the season and it seemed to change nothing. Obviously someone with Crosby’s talent makes any team better, but last year we realized that this squad is still plenty good, even without him. They still finished 4^th in the East and while they were eliminated in the first round, it was by the Tampa Bay Lighting in seven games. (They went all the way to the Eastern Conference Finals). Crosby’s status continues to be up in the air, but we know now that won’t stop this Pittsburgh team.

Crosby or not, the Penguins still boast a solid offensive core that includes Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, Tyler Kennedy, Pascal Dupuis, and Chris Kunitz. On the blueline, they remain strong with Brooks Orpik, Kris Letang, and Paul Martin leading the way. Marc-Andre Fleury returns again as the starting goaltender, with Brent Johnson as a capable back up. This team is talented and finds ways to win. And of course, when Crosby returns to 100% there’s no doubt they will be one of the more feared teams in the league.

Montreal Canadiens

The last four years, no one has mentioned them heading into the season. And the last four years, there they are in the playoffs. I suppose this is somewhat of a wildcard for the top five in the Eastern Conference. Others might have gone with the Lightning, or the Flyers, or even (gulp) the New York Rangers. Heck, I still have this feeling in the back of my mind that the Winnipeg crowd can carry the new Jets to a high seed in the East.

As much as I want to chalk up last year’s epic first round series between Boston and Montreal as just part of the long-standing rivalry, my better half is telling me that this squad is actually for real. There is plenty of talent on this team, both up front and on the blueline. Led by Captain Brian Gionta, the offensive core includes Mike Cammalleri, Scott Gomez, Tomas Plekanec, and new addition Erik Cole. On defense, the Canadiens have veterans Hal Gill, Jaroslav Spacek, Andrei Markov returning from injury, and young star P.K. Subban. Last year in the playoffs, Carey Price proved he is more than capable of being a goaltending star and if not for him, their first round series surely would not have gone to seven games. This team has what it takes to be a top seed in the East.

And now for the Western Conference, again, in no particular order…

Vancouver Canucks

Ugh. I hate the Canucks. But as much as I hate them as a fan, as an objective writer I can’t deny that they are still an incredibly talented team. Besides losing Ehrhoff, they are pretty much the same squad that went seven games in the Finals last season. The year before that, they lost to the Chicago Blackhawks in the Semis (Hawks went on to win the Cup). Unless they’re hung up on last year, there’s no reason why this team shouldn’t find itself in the top of the Western Conference again this year.

Up front, they still have the Sedin twins, Chris Higgins, Mikael Samuelsson, Manny Malhotra, and the biter Alex Burrows. They have also picked up veteran Marco Sturm. Kevin Bieksa, Dan Hamhuis, Andrew Alberts, and Alexander Edler lead the defensive corps. In the net, Roberto Luongo returns. I expect Vancouver to be one of the top teams in the league again, and as far as the playoffs go, let’s put it this way, they’ve experienced just about as much as a team can short of winning.

San Jose Sharks

For the second year in a row they advanced to the Western Conference finals, only to fall at the hands of the Canucks on one of the flukiest plays in playoff history. The Sharks have been a regular season force for some years now and my guess is that trend will continue. What I said about experience for Vancouver arguably applies here too, which they will surely have to rely on, because I see this team as a top seed in the West as well.

They’ve got plenty of talent and always have, especially up front, with Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, Ryane Clowe, and Joe Pavelski leading the way. Trading Dany Heatley was definitely a good move and it should allow San Jose’s younger forwards to refine their offensive game. Beyond Dan Boyle, defense has been a problem for the Sharks, but they’ve gone out and acquired Colin White and Jim Vandermeer to help alleviate those concerns. In goal, they have a proven champion in Antti Niemi. It should be another good year for the Sharks.

Los Angeles Kings

Like the Sabres, the Kings have successfully made the playoffs in the last two seasons only to find themselves eliminated in the first round. A team with a wealth of young talent, Los Angeles made some major moves in the offseason that should put them in serious contention in the West. This team has the potential to upset the balance in this conference.

It’s not everyday that you land a guy like Mike Richards. The former captain of the Flyers joins an already talented offensive group featuring Anze Kopitar, Jarret Stoll, Dustin Penner, Justin Williams, and Captain Dustin Brown. The Kings also picked up veteran goal scorer Simon Gagne. They inked defenseman Drew Doughty to a long-term deal as he headlines a blueline corps that also features Matt Greene, Jack Johnson, and veterans Rob Scuderi and Willie Mitchell. In between the pipes, Jonathan Quick continues to show that he is the best young goaltender in the league.

Detroit Red Wings

I feel almost obligated to put them on this list and I don’t think too many people can levy a decent argument against it. For as long as I’ve been a hockey fan, the Red Wings have been good and I don’t think that’s going to change this year. They’ve lost back-to-back years in the Semis and that’s the worst they’ve finished in the last five seasons. No reason to expect Detroit to finish out of the top five in the West this year.

They retain an offense that boasts the likes of Pavel Datsyuk, Johan Franzen, Henrik Zetterberg, and Tomas Holmstrom. They have a very solid defense core that features Brad Stuart, Niklas Kronwall, Ian White, and recently acquired Mike Commodore. Oh, and Captain Nicklas Lidstrom returns at the ripe old age of 41 as the defending Norris Trophy winner. Arguably, their only question mark comes with Jimmy Howard in net, but he is certainly good enough to help carry this team to a high seed this season.

Anaheim Ducks

The Ducks found themselves in the top five in the West last year, and after a brutal first round exit to the Nashville Predators in the playoffs, they’ll be motivated to prove they belong in the conversation again. Because Los Angeles looks like a much better team going into this season, and because the Ducks have such talented forwards, I keep Anaheim in the top five and have the Kings nudging the Predators out. That doesn’t mean Nashville will be a bad team, but I have to draw the line somewhere.

The Ducks have superb young talent in Captain Ryan Getzlaf, Bobby Ryan, and defending Hart Trophy winner Corey Perry. In addition, they have an excellent veteran presence in Jason Blake, Saku Koivu, and Teemu Selanne. Like last year, this team should score plenty of goals. On defense, they also have a nice mix of young and old in Matt Smaby, Cam Fowler, Francois Beauchemin, and Toni Lydman. Back in goal, Jonas Hiller continues to be one of the game’s very best netminders. This squad leaves something to be desired on defense, but what it lacks there, it well makes up for its goalie and forwards.

Sources: NHL.com