Surprises Abound in NFL Through Week Six

I’m pretty sure you could have made this statement after a few weeks, or maybe even just one, nonetheless through six weeks it’s pretty obvious that the lockout never actually threatened the 2011 NFL season. I have to admit my doubts mostly stemmed from an acute bitterness, not so much towards the players or owners, but more towards the idea of no professional football. There’s a reason why this league is veritable goldmine, all you have to do is watch. It shouldn’t come as a shock that the real surprise is not that the games are happening, but what’s happening in them. For me there are three big surprises and they all happen to be in the NFC…

San Francisco 49ers: 5-1, 1^st place NFC West

Last year this division was the rag doll of the league, but those wishing to insult the NFC West might now find it prudent to hold their tongue. Under the helm of new head coach Jim Harbaugh, the 49ers have made quite a statement through six games. Not surprisingly, success in the Bay is starting with defense, particularly against the run. They rank third in rushing yards allowed, surrendering just 74.7 yards per game. On top of that, they are the only team in the league that hasn’t surrendered a rushing touchdown yet. Their passing defense doesn’t rank quite as high in terms of yards allowed, but when you’re not allowing much on the run, you can bet with pretty good odds that the other team is going to throw the ball a lot. This helps explain why San Francisco ranks tied for fifth in the NFL with eight interceptions, and tied for third with 17 sacks.

In terms of total offense, the 49ers rank at 28^th in yards per game, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t things to be happy about. San Francisco’s offensive line isn’t just playing well, they’re playing mean and that can go a long way. Last Sunday, they had no problem stepping up to Ndamukong Suh and the other bad boys on Detroit’s defensive line. This is one of the reasons their offense flows through the running game. Lead back Frank Gore is in the top ten in virtually every rushing category and as a whole, the Niners are fifth in rushing yards. Concerns about quarterback Alex Smith are well deserved, but for now he seems to be doing fine. Maybe having a head coach who was a former QB is helping Smith find himself, or at the very least, preventing him from costing San Francisco wins.

The pass attack leaves something to be desired so far, but it’s not like Smith doesn’t have weapons in Vernon Davis, Delanie Walker, Josh Morgan, and Michael Crabtree. In Week 3, he threw for 291 yards and two touchdowns on the road against Philadelphia’s vaunted secondary. Last Sunday, he completed a clutch drive on a nice throw to Walker that handed the Lions their first loss of the year. Between 2009-2010, Smith threw 22 picks in 22 games, but through six games this season he’s thrown just two. That’s a promising sign. Besides, this team has shown its defense and special teams (Two return TDs for Ted Ginn, Jr. in Week 1) can score as well, which is one reason why despite their lack of yards, they are seventh in the NFL at 27.8 points per game.

The whole “Handshake-Gate” also made one final point immutably clear. Jim Harbaugh may be a jerk, but winning is winning and he clearly knows how to fire up his football team. Riding the emotions from the win and from their coach, the 49ers are poised to roll through the next portion of their schedule after this week’s bye. Three of their next four games are at home, with the one road game coming against a suspect Washington Redskins squad. Their toughest opponent in that stretch will probably be the New York Giants in Week 10. But it’s not outrageous to suggest that San Francisco can head into a big Week 12 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens with a 9-1 record.

Detroit Lions: 5-1, 2^nd place NFC North

Before last Sunday’s loss to San Francisco, the Detroit Lions were on a run of nine consecutive wins going back to last season. It’s going to be tough for the Lions to win this division with the way the Green Bay Packers are playing, and let’s not forget that it was actually the Chicago Bears who won the NFC North last season. Regardless, if Detroit remains on this pace it will boast its first winning record since 2000 and first playoff appearance since 1999.

Third year quarterback Matthew Stafford is leading the way, returning with a vengeance after playing in just three games in the 2010 season. Stafford is third in the NFL with 15 touchdown passes, trailing Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers. Calvin Johnson has caught nine of those TD passes, which leads the NFL, and he also ranks fifth in receiving yards. As a team, the Lions are ranked 8^th in the league with 277 passing yards per game, and 13^th in total yards per game. So far, the offense has been flowing completely through the passing game, although part of that is due to the fact that they’ve been behind in several games. When they got out ahead of Chicago in Week 5, running back Jahvid Best ran for a season high 163 yards.

Through six games, the Lions aren’t particularly standing out as a team in many other categories. They have a strong secondary that is tied for fifth in the NFL with eight interceptions and the longest pass they have surrendered went for 45 yards. The Lions boast a strong defensive line with Kyle Vanden Bosch, Ndamukong Suh, and Cliff Avril. They’ve shown susceptibility to the run game, but have racked up 14 sacks and done their fair share contributing to a team that’s allowing just 19 points per game, good for 7^th in the NFL. Numbers don’t speak to what’s been most impressive about this squad. Their two 20-point comeback wins weren’t just because of Stafford, particularly against Dallas in Week 4, when they picked Tony Romo twice in the third quarter for touchdowns. This team has been finding ways to win and making plays when they’re needed. That should go a long way.

As I mentioned before, the Lions’ only loss came to San Francisco in a fiercely fought game. They should be able to rebound next week against an Atlanta Falcons team that has been less than spectacular and is allowing a ton of yards in the air. After that they hit the road, facing a weak Broncos team in the midst of a quarterback change and a Bears squad they’ve already defeated. They’ll return to Ford Field for a favorable match up against Carolina. I see them going 3-1 over their next four games. That would put them at 8-2 going into a tough closing stretch, which features New Orleans, Oakland, San Diego, as well as two gams against the Packers. I’m a believer in this team and I see them making the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles: 2-4, 4^th place NFC East

Was the “Dream Team” just that? A dream? It appears that’s the case. The team that was supposed to steam roll its way to the Super Bowl has thus far failed to live up to the hype. I didn’t rate the Eagles as highly as most in the media, but I’m still shocked to see them in last place right now. Despite the fact that they’re in an early hole in a tough division, there’s still time to right the ship.

The media hype for Philadelphia largely stemmed from the idea that the moves they made in the offseason would resolve big problems on defense. Through six games, the numbers suggest otherwise. The Eagles finished 15^th in the NFL last season with 110.4 rushing yards allowed per game. So far in 2011, that number has gone up to 123.8, with six touchdowns surrendered. Signing Nnamdi Asomugha and acquiring Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie hasn’t decreased the amount of yards the Eagles are allowing in the air, either. In 2010, Philadelphia ranked tied for 29^th in the NFL with 31 touchdown passes allowed. They do have seven interceptions already in 2011, but opposing quarterbacks have also thrown for 11 touchdowns (bear in mind four of those seven picks were gift-wrapped by Rex Grossman this past Sunday).

Going into this season, there weren’t a whole lot of concerns for the Eagles on offense. With the likes of quarterback Michael Vick, running back LeSean McCoy, and receivers DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, they are supremely talented. Currently, they rank third in the league with 441.7 total yards per game. Between McCoy and Vick, the rushing attack leads the NFL with 170 yards per game and 5.7 yards per carry. Unfortunately, there are still problems. The Eagles lead the league in both fumbles lost and interceptions thrown, meaning a good portion of those 441 yards in every game have been lost due to turnovers. Eight of those interceptions belong to Michael Vick. He threw just six in 12 games last year.

What all this amounts to is not that they made the wrong moves, or that those moves won’t pay off, but just that they haven’t yet. The numbers don’t exactly explain their record, either. Their four game losing streak started with a highly anticipated game in Atlanta, Vick’s first since returning to the NFL. I had the Falcons all the way in that game, for the sole reason that they didn’t want Vick to show them up in their own stadium. The Falcons moved on after he went to prison and they wanted to prove that. Even then, the Eagles still could have won that game if Jeremy Maclin held onto a crucial pass in the fourth quarter.

Following that game, they lost a tough division matchup to the Giants, who desperately wanted to enact revenge after suffering a humiliating defeat in their final matchup in 2010. San Francisco may be for real, but that doesn’t mean the Eagles should have allowed them to come back from a 20-point deficit. Hardly anyone has been able to contain Fred Jackson this season; nonetheless Buffalo took advantage largely because of Vick’s four interceptions in that game. But things are looking up, at least for now. They head into a much needed bye week on a winning note, though; this was more due to Grossman than anything else. Beyond games against Arizona, Seattle, and Miami, the remaining schedule for the Eagles is pretty difficult. They will need to play much better football to avoid the dream becoming a nightmare.

A few other thoughts…

- Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Redskins, and Pittsburgh Steelers are the only teams in the NFL with winning records who are scoring less than 20 points per game on average. Explanation? The Redskins and Steelers are boasting excellent defenses so far, allowing just 16.6 and 17.0 PPG, respectively. Tampa Bay is scoring 18.8 but surrendering 24.2, however, this discrepancy is due to a 48-3 blowout loss to San Francisco in Week 5. Average of their four wins: Bucs 22.5 points vs. opponents 17.5 points.

­ - The Buffalo Bills don’t surprise me, which is why they’re not included above. What they did in the second half of 2010, and even in some of their close losses in the first half, showed me that this team was clearly on the rise. While I’m sure this will be disputed my good friends who are Bills fans, let’s be honest, the wins over Oakland and New England had a heavy amount of luck involved. But I’ll put it this way; no one has won a shootout with Buffalo this year. They are second in the NFL averaging 31.3 PPG, just 1.5 under Green Bay. In the four games they’ve scored 30+ points, they’ve won. In the two games they haven’t, they’ve lost.

- The New York Jets are 3-0 vs. teams with losing records, 0-3 vs. teams with winning records. I’m just not quite sold on this squad yet, although as a Patriots fan that doesn’t really disappoint me all that much. In terms of yards per game, they rank 23^rd in passing and 31^st in running. I don’t doubt their secondary at all, but they are allowing teams to run all over them. The best team they’ve beaten this year is the Cowboys in Week 1 and that was mostly because Romo threw a terrible, untimely interception. The Jets will have to play well over the next five weeks to prove that they are a quality football team. Their next leg goes: vs. San Diego, @Buffalo, vs. New England, @Denver, vs. Buffalo.

Sources: ESPN.com, NFL.com