Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Double Feature – Breaking Down NHL’s New Conference Plan and Tiger Woods Returns To The Winner’s Circle

Some weeks, there just isn’t much to write about. I didn’t produce anything in the final week of November. I chalked this up to “taking a break for the holiday” but in reality, I didn’t have much to go with. I just kept waiting for something big to happen. The NBA decided to come back, but my reaction to that was a mix of indifference and callousness. Indifference because the lockout gave me time to realize that hockey and football are superior products, in my mind. Callousness because this “11th hour” decision proved how pointless and stupid the lockout was in the first place. I mean, I guess the owners came out on top and got what they wanted. On the other hand, the players end up looking stupid because they should have known they would lose on the deal anyway, all of which suggests that this could have been resolved over the summer.

So as last week rolled along, I found that nothing was really sparking my interest. I had my own “11th hour” when, in the course of a conversation, I realized it would be fun to talk about Brendan Shanahan and his penchant for handing down suspensions. It was a good topic and fun to research, but the last three days have provided a whirlwind of conversational topic. So much so, that I’ve decided to take the unprecedented move to post a double feature this week. So here we go, twice the bang for your buck.

Breaking Down the NHL’s New Conference Plan

I hardly had but a few moments to soak up the Boston Bruins latest victory before hearing about a “radical new plan” to reorganize the 30 teams in the NHL. The Board of Governors approved the plan last night; however, implementation is pending approval by the player’s union. If everyone’s on board, the new scheme could be in place as early as next season. Unlike the NBA, the NHL has always been willing to adopt changes to fix what isn’t working, and usually this turns out for the better. I’m not going to rest my case on past decisions working out, but history does suggest that overall, these types of changes benefit everyone involved.

The current system has an Eastern and Western conference, both with 15 teams. Within those conferences, there are three divisions with five teams each. It’s nice, easy, straightforward, and mathematically sound. Eight teams from each conference make the playoffs, with the three division winners taking the top three seeds in descending order of overall points. For the most part, the divisions and conferences made geographic sense as well. The exceptions were Columbus and Nashville, which are closer to the East coast, but in the Western Conference.

This past summer, the former Atlanta Thrashers became the new Winnipeg Jets. As a member of the Southeast Division in the Eastern Conference, this immediately presented a travel nightmare every team in that division (Winnipeg, Carolina, Washington, Florida, Tampa Bay). On the face, the way to resolve this was fairly simple. You could move Columbus or Nashville from the Central division in the West to the Southeast and have Winnipeg take their spot. In light of other concerns, this was not the simple solution.

And by other concerns, I mean mainly the concerns of the owners of the Detroit Red Wings, Columbus Blue Jackets, Minnesota Wild, and the Dallas Stars. As the teams (well, American teams) separated farthest from the rest of the league, they’ve always had concerns about the large amount of travel. It’s not just about the travel schedule, though. Well in the first place, how can it be? This schedule hasn’t prevented the Red Wings from making the playoffs every year since the current system was adopted before the 1993-1994 season (picking up four Stanley Cups along the way). While I’ll admit the Blue Jackets have always had a tough schedule because they’re in the Western Conference, I submit that having a good hockey team is still the number one contributor to success in the NHL, shockingly.

The new plan separates the 30 teams into four roughly geographically based groups. The more or less western teams would be split into two eight-team conferences, and the eastern teams into two seven-team conferences. Minnesota, Dallas, and Winnipeg would join the current members of the Central division in a more or less mid-West conference. Leaving the remaining members of the Northwest and Pacific divisions a “west coast” conference. That makes some sense. Logistically, it seems to benefit Minnesota and Dallas the most. Columbus and Detroit would play more games within their own time zone as well. In the east, however, the sense starts to fade.

Instead of holding to that model, the two Florida based teams would join the current members of the Northeast division in one conference, while Carolina and Washington would join the current Atlantic division teams in the other. Overall, this is how it would look:
Eh, basically West Coast
Mid-West
Edmonton
Detroit
Calgary
Minnesota
Vancouver
Chicago
Colorado
Columbus
Phoenix
St. Louis
Los Angeles
Winnipeg
Anaheim
Dallas
San Jose
Nashville
Northeast + Florida
Middle Colonies
Boston
New York Rangers
Toronto
Philadelphia
Buffalo
New Jersey
Ottawa
Pittsburgh
Montreal
New York Islanders
Florida
Washington
Tampa Bay
Carolina

With the western conferences, this more or less makes sense. Colorado and Phoenix aren’t exactly on the West coast, but because Nashville and Columbus are the eastern-most middle of the country teams, they have to be where they are. You can also see the correlation in terms of big media markets, so between that and the travel, it seems like a good plan. The other big facet of the alignment is due to economic concerns. Under the new schedule, every team has a home-and-home series with every other team in the league. The NHL has been seeing the benefits of this setup since they first instituted it, and the idea that fans will have the chance to see stars from every team in the league is a good one.

However, that also means the east coast teams will have an increased travel schedule. I suppose the trade off there is that they have an advantage being in a seven-team conference. Economically, the big winners in this realignment would be the teams in the “middle colonies” conference. The owners of the current Atlantic division teams successfully campaigned to keep those teams together because they wanted to keep those rivalries intact. Their intra-conference travel schedule is also the lightest. Geographically, it would have made more sense for the New York teams, or maybe one of them and the Devils to join with the current Northeast. But because the Atlantic rivalries are profitable to those franchises, they were on board with the concerns of the Pennsylvania teams.

And from the standpoint of the Florida teams, they come out on top anyway. Their main concern was to remove Winnipeg from the equation. The potential economic benefits of having teams like Boston, Montreal, and Toronto (big hockey markets) come to town three times a year far outweighed having an easier travel schedule with a team like Columbus in the conference. Beyond Columbus not being a good team, it is also a small market. Having the Northeast teams come down will draw viewership from the local retiree population, as well as fans traveling to see their team play. I mean, who from the northeast doesn’t like going to Florida in the middle of the winter?

One part of this plan I do like is the playoff scheme. In the first two rounds, the top four teams would play each other for their respective conference championships. It has not yet been determined how the four conference champions would be seeded for the third round. Guaranteed intra-conference matchups through the first two rounds will provide great entertainment and should boost ratings. Many of these rivalries are already cemented and under the proposed plan that would only increase.

If everyone’s on board, then I’m all for it. It seems weird, but I understand the logic and I know the NHL has been looking for ways to increase its economic strength. I agree that having home-and-home series, and being able to see every team is a crucial part of that. But the minute I hear people – fans, writers, players, owners, GMs, presidents, whatever – from Detroit, Dallas, Chicago, Minnesota, Winnipeg, and maybe even Columbus if they’re ever good, whine about how it’s sooooo much harder to make the playoffs in an eight team conference, I will kindly say I told you so. The plan works because it should benefit everyone economically, but it also only happened because those teams saw an opportunity to reduce their travel schedule and prevent the loss of money in the event they’re playing playoff games on the West Coast that start at 10:30 PM.

The cynical part of me wants to call this the “So Mid-Westerners Can Go To Bed On Time” plan, but I know there’s much more to it than that. As I pointed out before, teams with tough schedules can still win a lot of hockey games and still do well in the playoffs. As perplexing as it is to have the two Florida teams in a conference with five other teams that reside north of New York City, I know that overnight the toughest conference in the league would become the “middle colonies” one. I’m not overjoyed by every aspect of this plan, but if it becomes reality, I’ll be OK with it. It seems like it will foster growth and at time when the NBA continues to take steps backward, the NHL is perhaps making a necessary move to keep things going forward.

Tiger Woods Returns to the Winner’s Circle

On Sunday, Tiger Woods drained clutch birdie putts on the 17th and 18th holes to cement a victory at the Chevron World Challenge, an annual tournament hosted for the benefit of the Tiger Woods Foundation at the Nicklaus-designed Sherwood Country Club in Thousand Oaks, California. It’s an off-season money grab, but because of the format, it’s become an eligible tournament for World Golf Ranking points. The format calls for the defending champion, the four major winners from that year, 11 officially ranked golfers, and four invitees of foundation.

Short of winning another major, the most anticipated moment in golf was seeing Tiger Woods win a tournament again, of any kind. It appears that the next most anticipated moment was quickly dismissing that win as meaningless. When you’re the best golfer in the world, the standards are set pretty high. Woods was coming off a pretty successful Australian swing. He finished third in the Australian Open before playing very well in the Presidents Cup, clinching the final point for the Americans. More importantly, his swing just looks better. The routine cast of NBC/Golf Channel announcers couldn’t stop talking about the sound his clubs are making at contact.

Perhaps most importantly for Tiger, the putting game has been getting increasingly better. Of course, it’s always easier to make more putts by getting yourself in better position. There have been hiccups along the way, for example, at times in Australia, it seemed like he would have the flat blade in one round, and lose it the next. I think it starts with the rest of his game, though. Now that he’s been healthy and able to practice every day with coach Sean Foley, the results are finally starting to show. Being more confident in his ability to make fairways and greens has let Tiger focus again on making putts. It’s impossible to have a good day on the green when your mind is thinking about how you keep pulling your drives or chunking your irons.

Sherwood is an excellent test of golf, as are most courses designed by Jack Nicklaus. For me, the signature of a Nicklaus hole is the green. If there are any easy greens at Sherwood, I couldn’t find them. They are typically small, usually undulating, often tiered, and always incredibly fast. But, the layout isn’t devoid of scoring opportunities. Precision is always key, but the four par 5s and a couple short par 4s provide some excellent chances. Add the fact that the tournament came on the heels of a prolific windstorm on the California coast and you’ve got a pretty good recipe for a tournament. Last year, Graeme McDowell and Tiger finished regulation at -15. This year, Tiger won at -10. The windy conditions on Saturday alone accounted for those five strokes, but conditions were pretty tough all around.

Even so, many people have been dismissing Tiger’s win on Sunday. It’s funny that all those people in the summer that were saying he just had to win something are turning around and saying this isn’t enough, he only beat 17 other golfers, it’s just a money grab that no one cares about, etc. First of all, I watched the last two rounds and I didn’t see anybody not caring. Whether it’s the Transitions Championship, the U.S. Open, or the CVS Caremark Charity Classic, I don’t think professionals do that. Furthermore, it’s a complete double standard to say McDowell’s win over Tiger in a playoff last year at the very same tournament was the “perfect end to a perfect season” and the ultimate moment of the world’s best golfers saying to Woods, “we’re not afraid of you anymore” and then turn around and say the next year that it doesn’t mean anything when Tiger wins.

Furthermore, ten of the golfers in the field combined to win 14 tournaments on the PGA Tour this year, and one on the European Tour. That list includes Keegan Bradley, who won the PGA Championship, and Bill Haas, who won the FedEx Cup. The remaining seven who didn’t are all ranked golfers. Four of those seven had excellent overall seasons on Tour. The remaining two (Zach Johnson, Jim Furyk) happen to be the other two major champions in the field besides Woods and Bradley. OK, so the other major winners weren’t there. Guess what? They all play on the European Tour.

Rory McIlroy was busy winning the Hong Kong Open, yeah…exactly…the Hong Kong Open. If McIlroy wants to seriously challenge Woods’ throne, he’s going to have to play in more events against him. Hmm, maybe that’s why he fired his agent Chubby Chandler and declared his 2012 schedule will feature several more PGA Tour stops? Same goes for Charl Schwartzel. And Darren Clarke, well, the man has suffered enough and is not in his mid-20s. Besides, he was probably too hung over anyway. So yes, he only beat 17 other golfers, but he beat 17 other really good golfers. And really, 17 isn’t that far off from 25, which is about the number of good golfers in a given Tour stop anyway. Beating 50 guys who are playing for a paycheck isn’t that remarkable.

Trying to belabor this point by saying Martin Kaymer and Lee Westwood weren’t there doesn’t hold water either. Guess where else they aren’t? On the PGA Tour with any regularity. Given the strength of the field at the tournament, I wouldn’t say that Dustin Johnson’s presence would have made a stark difference. He hasn’t had quite the year that, say, Luke Donald has had. Nor does he boast the career resume that Phil Mickelson has. So OK. Phil and Luke weren’t there and if they were, you could say Tiger beat a tougher field. That doesn’t mean the field he beat was weak, though.

The biggest positive of winning this past week was the way Tiger won, though. When asked after the round what being in contention means, Zach Johnson stated that to him that means having a chance to win the tournament with four holes left. I’m not sure Tiger’s ever been wired that way, but nonetheless, he played the tournament in that fashion. He posted 69-67 in his first two rounds to finish with the 54-hole lead. On a windblown Saturday during which bogeys were aplenty, Woods was able to battle and stave off disaster with a +1 round of 73, on a day where he clearly didn’t have his best stuff, especially on the green. For most of Sunday, things were going that way too. For the most part, he held a one stroke lead over Johnson but was never able to go on that stretch of three or four holes he used to have where all of a sudden he’s got a five stroke lead.

In fact, the opposite happened. Johnson hung around, played his game, and was unfazed by Woods. On the tricky par 5 sixteenth, both players elected to lay up to wedge distance. This played directly into Johnson’s favor and sure enough, he made birdie while Tiger failed to make par. None of those putts Tiger seemed to always make were falling, a fact of which the television viewer was reminded of by the broadcast team no less than 100 times on Sunday. But when it mattered most, they did. After Johnson’s putt burned the edge on 17, Woods curled his in, fist pump to boot. From nearly identical positions on the 18th fairway, Tiger was able to get his second within 10 feet, while Johnson had a makeable, but farther putt. After missing and tapping in for par, Johnson stood next to his caddy and watched as Tiger confidently drained his birdie for the victory. Zach looked up at his caddy, nodded and said, “Yep.” It has been two years, but we’re still accustomed to seeing Tiger come through in the clutch moments. We still have a winter to get through, but my eyes – and I bet Tiger’s too – are on Augusta in April.

Friday, December 2, 2011

SHANABAN

The NHL’s new disciplinarian has no qualms handing out suspensions

Since the lost season in 2004-2005, the NHL has regained some momentum it had in the national sports consciousness. That year gave the league time to address some critical rule changes, which has resulted in a much more enjoyable and authentic brand of play. Add that with an influx of young talent, led by marketable stars such as Sidney Crosby and Alexander Ovechkin, and you have a winning recipe. However, this does not mean some of the age-old criticisms have gone away. In this era of ever-increasing knowledge about things like head injuries, the NHL has put forth a continual effort to regulate and hopefully curb behavior that can have disastrous consequences.

After 13 years as the head disciplinarian, Colin Campbell stepped down, in part because his son Gregory plays for the Boston Bruins, but more because the league really needed a fresh set of eyes. In a time of heightened scrutiny, Campbell found it difficult to maintain a sense of consistency when handing down suspensions and fines. Shanahan is that fresh set of eyes, and he also played in the post-lockout NHL (he retired as a player in 2009). Furthermore, Shanahan was no stranger to physical play, as he racked up 2,489 penalty minutes in 1,524 career games.

Like football, hockey is a physical sport where contact is not only allowed, but indeed a necessity to playing the game properly. Unlike football, you don’t skate around carrying the puck in your hands, but rather use a stick. Now, the stick is supposed to be an implement, but sometimes it is used as a weapon. And even more unlike football, fighting is also a critical part of the game. In these ways, many people view hockey as a violent sport. How it is any less violent than football, I’ve never been quite sure. Then again, I grew up playing and loving hockey. Likewise, it often seems the most vocal critics of hockey’s violence are those who are disconnected from the game, as in, they are and were never fans and/or never played the game.

Shanahan adminstering a Shanaban
In very similar ways, both the NFL and NHL have gone to increasing lengths to address head injuries. As we learn more about concussions, we’re able to see more ways that they can happen. Campbell’s inability to maintain consistency seemed to stem from his lack of feel for the speed of today’s game, however, Shanahan is someone who does have that feel. Part of the effort to have consistent rulings has been Shanahan’s openness and clear explanation of the play in question as it relates directly to the language of the rule. Instead of textual releases, Shanahan has put himself on video for each suspension he’s handed out thus far. These videos are directly accessible on NHL.com’s home page. Shanahan is also posting links to the videos on his Twitter page, which is likewise retweeted by the NHL’s Twitter feed.

These are exactly the type of steps the league should be taking not only to regulate illegal behavior on the ice, but also to address the game’s critics. But beyond these efforts, Brendan Shanahan has also been a swift and unforgiving executor of justice. He set the precedent early by handing out nine suspensions in the preseason alone, totaling 60 games (29 served in preseason, 31 served in the regular season). Of those preseason suspensions, six were for five more games. In 2010-2011, Colin Campbell handed out six such suspensions in the preseason, regular season, and playoffs combined. Add the 5 gamer Shanahan slapped on the Oilers Andy Sutton for elbowing on November 1st and he’s topped Campbell’s mark from last year…and it’s only December 2nd. You break the rules, you get a Shanaban. Simple as that.

And Shanaban’s are on a torrid pace. Last year, players served 112 regular season games at a rate of 16 games per month. Through two months of the season this year, Shanaban’s total 55 games, or a clip of 27.5 per month. That puts us on pace for suspensions of 192 regular season games. I’ve broken down some numbers over the past three years so we can marvel at Shanahan’s disciplinary prowess:

Year
Head/Late
Illegal Hit
Stick
Fight
Other
Total
Head%
09-10
30
45
6
10
0
86
35%
10-11
93
14
3
11
8
129
72%
11-12
40
33
2
9
0
84
48%

As you can see, suspensions this season have nearly matched the total from two years ago, in just two months. For clarification purposes, I went through all the suspensions from the past three seasons and attempted to identify all that were directly related to potential head injuries and separated the others into their respective categories. I believe the reason for the discrepancy between 2009-2010 and last season is due to the NHL’s effort to address the danger of head injuries. I also believe Campbell’s way of classifying these incidents led to complaints of inconsistency in his rulings, and the reason why 93 of 129 games served can be classified as relating to head injury. However, that doesn’t change the fact that the league is showing increasing efforts to address these plays. Broadly speaking, over the last three years 85% of games served to suspension have related to head injury and late/illegal hits.

Suspensions and fines for stick penalties are only for the worst cases, although Shanahan seems to be a little stricter in that area as well. He’s already handed out five fines totaling $10,000 for those infractions, in addition to a two game suspension to Minnesota’s Pierre-Marc Bouchard for a high-sticking incident. Fighting suspensions are pretty easy to classify and occur when players directly break a well-defined rule (such as leaving the bench to instigate a fight, as Anaheim’s Jean-Francois Jacques did in the preseason).

I applaud Shanahan for not having any qualms about handing out suspensions and increasing their severity based upon the circumstances of the play. I also applaud him for going on screen to give an explanation every time it happens. It’s already getting redundant, but it’s still the right move. It gives the media, fans, and players a direct explanation. Players should know what to expect if they make a dangerous hit or use their stick in a way other than what it’s intended to do. I hated him as a player (mostly because I hate the Red Wings) but as the head disciplinarian for the NHL, he’s doing a marvelous job. Handing out nearly 200 games in suspensions may alter the way the game is played somewhat, but it is a necessary step to protect players from disastrous, and potentially career-ending (Marc Savard) injuries. Hockey is a physical sport, but Shanahan and the NHL are showing that irrational and dangerous plays will not be tolerated.

Extra Tidbits

- I got message from my good friend Asher the other day that said “Bobby Valentine…Yikes.” This immediately prompted me to declare the over/under on games managed by Bobby Valentine for the Boston Red Sox is +/- 260 games. We both took the under. My prediction: He’ll take the 2012 team within striking distance of the wild card but ultimately fall short. This will probably be blamed on personnel (i.e. starting pitching) and injuries. But when the 2013 Red Sox are 50-50 through 100 games, he’ll get canned and go back to ESPN. Here’s to hoping I’m wrong.

- Through two months of the season, I’m doing better than I expected on my preseason NHL picks. In both conferences, I’m 3 for 5 (Boston, Buffalo, Pittsburgh, Detroit, San Jose, Los Angeles). Two of the teams I’ve picked have fired their head coach already, though. But only one team I picked is worse than 11th place right now. There’s a lot of hockey left and I could still end up looking dumb. Or really smart. Time will tell.

- Speaking of predictions, remember back when I said the 49ers would be 9-1 entering their Week 10 matchup with the Ravens? Yeah, that’s right. Oops, I also said the Lions would be 8-2 heading into their Week 10 game against Green Bay. But hey, 7-3 is only one game off.  I still like the Lions over the Bears in the NFC Wild Card now that Cutler is hurt and Caleb Hanie is, well, Caleb Hanie. But that greatly depends on Detroit beating the Saints this week, which is a stretch. I also claimed not to be surprised about the Bills because I expected them to be good, so…yeah, I’ve got to own up to that now. Sorry Timmy, sorry Lopez.

- So the NBA? Great! I’m going to miss reading 75 different versions of the same article on Grantland about the lockout. They did such a great job of exposing every flaw about the NBA that my interest in watching any games before the playoffs start is almost nil.