This post was first an e-mail I wrote to my father in response to this New York Times article about the impact of losing Aaron Hernandez in last week's 20-18 home opener upset by the Arizona Cardinals over the New England Patriots.
I agree about the blocked punt certainly, but that's one of those things
that just happens. Tough to predict - I mean obviously you want the
line to protect the punter, but when you're as backed up as we were, it
becomes a lot harder.
I also agree with Rodney Harrison that the line needs to be better. Tom
Brady's already been sacked/knocked down in the first two games more
than I like to see. The compounding effect, of course, is that he's
rushing some of his throws leading to more incomplete passes. I am not
sure why, but I don't feel as though the Arizona Cardinals defense got enough
credit this week. They are clearly a stingy unit, especially with their
secondary, and despite how good the San Francisco 49ers are, Arizona is going to make
some noise in the NFC West.
As for the Wes Welker thing, I think people are blowing things way out
of proportion. As you know, Brady and Bill Belichick were never wild about
their reliance on Welker last year and despite the prevalence of
Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, they felt it was still a deficiency. A good portion of
that had to do with the lack of a receiver capable of running the longer
routes (Insert: Brandon Lloyd). I think Welker's usage in Week 1 was a
match-ups thing, as was his increased activity in Week 2. Though, I
do agree that Hernandez being hurt was a change in game plan, or in
other words, the plan in Week 2 was the plan in Week 1. Regardless of that, once the match-ups favored Welker he hauled 5 catches for 95 yards.
The part that isn't getting talked about at all - which is
astounding to me - is the emergence of Stevan Ridley as a bona fide
featured running back. I mean, by definition this is going to reduce
every pass catcher's targets across the board. Yes, the tight end
offense is still the mainstay, so the targets to Hernandez/Gronkowski are
still the first and second options on most plays with
Lloyd/Welker/Julian Edelman on the others. Presumably Kellen Winslow takes the
place of Hernandez for the next 6 weeks, though I have my doubts given
that Chad Ochocinco, a very capable wide receiver, was not able to learn the
New England offense over the better part of 5 months. Winslow's had 5
days.
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Welker is still an important weapon. |
Ridley's presence is going to change this offense in a good way and I
think all Patriots fans should be excited. Yes, the tight ends are
still immensely important and yes, they will continue to receive the
lion's share of the targets. So a diminished role for Welker? Perhaps,
but only time will tell. Is he getting Randy Moss-ed? I have lots of doubts.
Moss was ousted as of a result a fundamental and philosophical change
in the offense with Hernandez and Gronkowski - this fact the article
points out correctly. What they are missing is that this hasn't changed.
The rise of Ridley is a redistribution of play calling and with that a
slight change in strategy from game to game, series to series. But it is
not the same type of fundamental and philosophical shift.
A few minor points to tack on the end here. Let's not forget that
targets is not an accurate representation of who the quarterback
intended to throw the ball to when they called the play. Mistakes
happen, the line can break where it wasn't supposed to, and well, the
quarterback can just misread the defense. I know this a bit of a "cop
out" argument, which is why I'm throwing it in as a minor point at the
end. But it is still relevant.
Lastly, let's not put it past a tactician
like Bill Belichick to convince everyone of thinking one way just to
turn it right back around at the opportune moment to make everyone throw
what they thought they knew out of the window. The less anyone knows,
or rather can predict, the better. You can make the argument that the
Patriots struggled in the Super Bowl because of what became somewhat too
predictable of an offense. In other words, the more the other team has
to prepare to defend, the higher the probability that the Patriots can
routinely exploit the many offensive weapons they have.