On Wes Welker

This post was first an e-mail I wrote to my father in response to this New York Times article about the impact of losing Aaron Hernandez in last week's 20-18 home opener upset by the Arizona Cardinals over the New England Patriots.

I agree about the blocked punt certainly, but that's one of those things that just happens. Tough to predict - I mean obviously you want the line to protect the punter, but when you're as backed up as we were, it becomes a lot harder.

I also agree with Rodney Harrison that the line needs to be better. Tom Brady's already been sacked/knocked down in the first two games more than I like to see. The compounding effect, of course, is that he's rushing some of his throws leading to more incomplete passes. I am not sure why, but I don't feel as though the Arizona Cardinals defense got enough credit this week. They are clearly a stingy unit, especially with their secondary, and despite how good the San Francisco 49ers are, Arizona is going to make some noise in the NFC West.

As for the Wes Welker thing, I think people are blowing things way out of proportion. As you know, Brady and Bill Belichick were never wild about their reliance on Welker last year and despite the prevalence of Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, they felt it was still a deficiency. A good portion of that had to do with the lack of a receiver capable of running the longer routes (Insert: Brandon Lloyd). I think Welker's usage in Week 1 was a match-ups thing, as was his increased activity in Week 2. Though, I do agree that Hernandez being hurt was a change in game plan, or in other words, the plan in Week 2 was the plan in Week 1. Regardless of that, once the match-ups favored Welker he hauled 5 catches for 95 yards.

The part that isn't getting talked about at all - which is astounding to me - is the emergence of Stevan Ridley as a bona fide featured running back. I mean, by definition this is going to reduce every pass catcher's targets across the board. Yes, the tight end offense is still the mainstay, so the targets to Hernandez/Gronkowski are still the first and second options on most plays with Lloyd/Welker/Julian Edelman on the others. Presumably Kellen Winslow takes the place of Hernandez for the next 6 weeks, though I have my doubts given that Chad Ochocinco, a very capable wide receiver, was not able to learn the New England offense over the better part of 5 months. Winslow's had 5 days.

Welker is still an important weapon.

Ridley's presence is going to change this offense in a good way and I think all Patriots fans should be excited. Yes, the tight ends are still immensely important and yes, they will continue to receive the lion's share of the targets. So a diminished role for Welker? Perhaps, but only time will tell. Is he getting Randy Moss-ed? I have lots of doubts. Moss was ousted as of a result a fundamental and philosophical change in the offense with Hernandez and Gronkowski - this fact the article points out correctly. What they are missing is that this hasn't changed. The rise of Ridley is a redistribution of play calling and with that a slight change in strategy from game to game, series to series. But it is not the same type of fundamental and philosophical shift.

A few minor points to tack on the end here. Let's not forget that targets is not an accurate representation of who the quarterback intended to throw the ball to when they called the play. Mistakes happen, the line can break where it wasn't supposed to, and well, the quarterback can just misread the defense. I know this a bit of a "cop out" argument, which is why I'm throwing it in as a minor point at the end. But it is still relevant.

Lastly, let's not put it past a tactician like Bill Belichick to convince everyone of thinking one way just to turn it right back around at the opportune moment to make everyone throw what they thought they knew out of the window. The less anyone knows, or rather can predict, the better. You can make the argument that the Patriots struggled in the Super Bowl because of what became somewhat too predictable of an offense. In other words, the more the other team has to prepare to defend, the higher the probability that the Patriots can routinely exploit the many offensive weapons they have.