AP for MVP

Before we get started, let’s put in the requisite disclaimer that we’re all well aware that the MVP in the NFL, as it is in every other sport (besides hockey sometimes), is wholly biased towards offensive players. This isn’t to say defensive players aren’t able to win it, but it’s only happened twice in the history of the award and not since Lawrence Taylor in 1986. It isn’t explicitly stated that the award goes to a player on a certain side of the ball, and you might even be surprised to learn (as I was) that a kicker has taken the honor before. Suffice it so say that there is not much room in the conversation for a defensive player’s impact or statistics to be weighed against that of a quarterback or running back, the two positions who’ve claimed all but three bestowments of the award.

My vote for this year’s MVP is unequivocally Adrian Peterson.

Before we explore his accolades this season, let’s delve into the runner ups, in no particular order.

Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins

RGIII is probably the most compelling case, if only because the hype he’s received this year (thanks to playing for a team in huge market) and the dynamism with which he plays the game. His performance this year has shown flashes of elitism both throwing and running the football, and his statistics bear that out. He finished 1^st in yards per attempt and 3^rd in passer rating, but just 22^nd in passing yards and T-19^th in passing TDs. His 815 rushing yards and 7 rush TDs were more than any other QB and he lead the league overall with 6.6 yards per carry. Griffin had a very clean 20/5 TD/INT ratio, though if we consider the full package, that figure is 27/8 Total TDs/INT & Lost fumbles (as a runner).

RGIII’s case probably relies less on his overall statistics and more on the impact he had on turning a 5-11 team in 2011 to a 10-6 NFC East champion in 2012, not just as a player but a leader as well (a fact DeAngelo Hall touched on in his post-game interview last night). But let’s not forget that this was not without the help of Alfred Morris, who finished 2^nd in the league in rushing yards with 1,613 and carried his team in the decisive game last night with a 200 yard, 3 TD performance. While their rankings as a defense are worse than last year, that is purely relative. The Redskins D went from 339.8 total yards per game and 22.9 points per game in 2011 to 377.7 YPG and 24.3 PPG in 2012. That’s a difference of 37.9 yards and 1.4 points, or in other words, an extra field goal every other game. Griffin belongs in the conversation, but ultimately falls short of the competition. For a rookie, that’s pretty damn good.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

The reigning MVP is right in the thick of it again this year and it comes as a surprise to almost nobody. Rodgers’ ascendancy to the elite category of QBs in 2010 has continued each of the past two seasons and his statistics bear that out: 1^st in passer rating, 2^nd in TDs, 5^th in yards per attempt. His efficiency has been insane, throwing for 39 TDs with just 8 picks despite being 10^th in the league in total attempts. He’s done this all while being sacked more times than any other QB in the league, and 21 more times than the next highest in the MVP conversation (Griffin III). He’s also done it with the lack of a good running game.

Upon a closer look, Green Bay’s running game isn’t as bad as the reputation it’s gotten, which is mostly due to there not being any steady featured back. But they rank 20^th in total rush yards and 25^th in rushing TDs with just 9 on the season. The only playoff team with a lower YPG mark is Atlanta. Rodgers himself is second on the team in rush yards and Green Bay has not had a single rushing performance over 100 yards in a game this year. While I do think that has something to do with losing Cedric Benson 5 games into the season, suffice it to say that Rodgers has done the majority of the offensive work by himself this year. The Packers boast one of, if not the best receiving corps in the NFL, but even so I think if anyone besides AP gets the award, it should be Rodgers.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Of course it pains me as a Patriots fan to say this, but Brady does not quite have the numbers this year to take full claim of the MVP, despite how eerily close his numbers are this year to when he last won the award in 2010. The sticking point in 2012 has been the emergence of the New England running game, but Brady had a top 10 running offense in 2010, too. In that year though, he led the league in TDs and passer rating. This year, he’s 4^th and 6^th in those categories respectively. You can’t totally discount the Patriots running game based on 2010 alone, if only because its ranking compared to the two other QBs in this conversation who primarily throw the ball is noticeably better. Stevan Ridley alone picked up over 1,200 yards and 12 TDs, while the combination of Danny Woodhead, Brandon Bolden, Shane Vereen (and Brady) accounted for an additional 900 some yards and 13 TDs.

Other than Brady falling somewhat statistically short of other candidates, what truly makes him a runner up this year is the New England defense. You read that right. This unit finished T-9^th with Houston with 20.7 PPG, finished 2^nd behind the Bears with 41 takeaways, and led the league in takeaway differential with 25. Those takeaways have directly related to Brady getting better field position, easier scores, and more comfortable leads. As we enter an era where 5,000 pass yards is likely an every year occurrence, we’ll need to find ways to differentiate QB statistics. That will likely be borne out this year if Aaron Rodgers wins the MVP despite finishing 8^th in passing yards.

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

I’m not really going to delve too far into the numbers with ol’ Peyton, but a quick look at his stats has him 2^nd in passer rating, 3^rd in TDs, and 6^th in pass yards, which is well worthy of consideration. He led Denver to its second consecutive divisional championship as well as the number 1 overall seed in the AFC. After losing three of its first five, the Broncos have won 11 games in a row, started by a classic Manning comeback against the Chargers on Monday Night Football in Week 6. But here’s why Manning falls short. And I know I said these were in no particular order, but I’d rank RGIII and Rodgers ahead of him, calling Brady and Manning a toss-up. He is a great QB that joined a very good team.

Denver was 7-4 in 2011 once Tebow took over the starting role, having been 1-4 with Kyle Orton before that. That was in 2011 when the AFC West was a much tougher division. Oakland, San Diego, and Kansas City combined for 23 wins in 2011, but just 13 in 2012. The 2011 Broncos actually faced the toughest strength-of-schedule of all AFC playoff teams, and as we know, made it into the 2^nd round. By comparison, Manning’s Broncos have faced an SOS some 63 points easier than the Tebow/Orton Broncos did. Only Atlanta, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati have had easier schedules of all 2012 playoff teams and the Broncos were 2-3 against playoff teams. What Manning has done this year is incredible, he definitely belongs in the conversation (and I believe he deserves the Comeback award), but he falls short of the other MVP candidates.

2012 NFL MVP: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Rushing = 2,097 yards (131.1 YPG, 6.0 YPC, 12 TDs), Receiving = 217 yards (1 TD)

Total = 2,314 yards

Vikings Net = 5,385 yards, AP = 42.97%

Vikings Net Rushing = 2,634 yards, AP = 79.61%

Vikings Offense: 171.9 pass YPG (31^st), 164.6 rush YPG (2^nd), 336.6 total YPG (20^th)

I don’t even think this should be a question, but I’ll be honest with you when I say that I started this article after Week 16 and realized that AP doesn’t justifiably deserve the MVP without the Vikings making the playoffs, which thankfully for me they did. The last MVP awarded to a player on a non-playoff team was OJ Simpson on the 1973 Bills, or the 1973 OJ Simpsons, because there was really no one else on that team offensively besides him. Coincidentally, that was the first time a running back eclipsed the 2,000 yard mark, and he did so in just 14 games. It also was due in part to the lack of a better candidate; unless you think Roger Staubach with 2,400 pass yards and 23/15 TD/INT mark on the 10-4 Cowboys deserved it.

Simply put, the Minnesota Vikings had absolutely no chance whatsoever at making the playoffs in 2012 without Adrian Peterson. After all, isn’t that what “most valuable” is supposed to denote. He ran for over 100 yards in 10 separate games this season, 7 of those were over 150, and he went over 200 yards twice. The Vikings net yardage on offense was only 208 more than what Drew Brees threw for all season. AP has rushed for more yards than his quarterback Christian Ponder has thrown for on five separate occasions this year and the Vikings are 2-3 in those games (more on that in a moment). Of AP’s 100 yard efforts, eight of them came consecutively from Week 8 through Week 15. He’s the 7^th player in NFL history to join the 2,000 yard club and he missed Eric Dickerson’s all-time mark by just 9 yards. In yesterday’s win-or-go-home match against the Packers, AP ran for 199 yards and a touchdown (also picked up his only receiving TD of the year). In the waning seconds, he broke off a 26 yard plowing through tackles run to set up the game winning and playoff clinching field goal.

Three of the five games in which AP has rushed for more than Ponder has thrown have come since star wide receiver Percy Harvin was shut down for the season. Beyond the tight end Kyle Rudolph, this team doesn’t have much else in receiving corps. No worries: the Vikings are 6-2 since losing Harvin and AP has had games of 171, 108, 210, 154, 212, 86, and 199 rush yards in that stretch. Ponder’s high mark in that stretch was the 234 yards he threw for yesterday, and he was under 150 yards in three of those games. In terms of passer rating, it was far and away his best game of the season, but he doesn’t get there against a ball-hawking secondary without AP. In an unheralded era of gaudy passing and receiving numbers, Peterson’s 2012 season stands unprecedented.

The two losses Minnesota had on the year where Peterson’s rush total beat Ponder’s pass total were Week 9 at Seattle (AP 182 rushing, Ponder 63 passing) and Week 13 at Green Bay (AP 210, Ponder 119). Did Peterson cost his team these games? Let’s take a look:

Against Seattle, the Vikings started with the ball and AP promptly ripped of runs of 5, 74, and 1 yards for the TD and a quick 7-0 lead. He accounted for all 80 yards on the drive. Their second drive was ended by a lost fumble by Percy Harvin. The third drive started with 16 yard run from AP, but two incompletions and a sack killed it. The fourth drive sees Ponder make completions of 3 (AP), 7, 14, and 13 yards, plus a PI call on a deep ball to Harvin that went for 24. AP finished that off with a 4 yard TD run. The fifth drive saw AP pick up the majority of yardage, including runs of 24 and 15 yards to setup a 36 yard FG.

Seattle finally finds a way to stop AP in the 6^th drive where Ponder can muster just a 9 yard pass to Harvin before taking another sack to force a punt. At that point it’s 20-17 in favor of Seattle, who promptly drives down the field and makes it 27-17 on 3 yard TD run for Marshawn Lynch. The 7^th drive sees Peterson break another long one, this time for 28 yards. An unsportsmanlike penalty on Seattle puts the Vikings into their territory and a long field goal makes the game 27-20. They would get the ball back again. Peterson has a 12 yard run and 5 yard catch, but consecutive incompletions on a 2^nd and 5 forces another punt. Seattle would pick up another FG, making it 30-20, and the ninth and final drive for Minnesota would end with a Ponder interception on a deep ball from the Minnesota 25.

This is the type of game that is perfectly indicative of not only Peterson’s value to the team, but the way in which it is magnified by Ponder’s shortcomings. It’s pretty difficult to blame the guy who ran for 182 yards and 2 TDs when your QB ends the game with 63 passing yards and an interception. Not surprisingly the Week 13 game in Green Bay wasn’t much different.

Ponder does have a TD drive in this game, but AP accounted for 30 of the 75 yards gained during it and Ponder would only throw for 74 more yards on the day. Without AP’s 82 yard TD run (his long on the year) that put the Vikings up 14-10 in the 2^nd quarter, the Vikings don’t have a chance of winning this game. Up by four points to start the 2^nd half, Peterson ripped of a run of 48 yards followed by another 4 to get to the Green Bay 8 yard line, only to have Ponder throw an endzone interception to kill the drive. He would throw another pick later in the 3^rd quarter. But the Vikings would get the ball with 4 minutes left down by 9 points. Ponder did some arm work here, though AP had a catch for 10, but Blair Walsh missed the 42 yard FG attempt, and the Packers would run out the clock to end the game.

It’s not immediately intuitive to use losses to paint a picture of how valuable a player is to his team, but in this case it works very nicely. As elite players often do, Peterson has performed at an exceptional level when his team has needed him most and he’s kept them in games they probably had no business being in. The four game winning streak to end the season and push Minnesota into the playoffs saw Peterson putting the team on his back and leading them to victory. There was no better way to cap off this historic season than the run he made to win his team the game yesterday. There is no more obvious choice for MVP other than Adrian Peterson.

Playoffs start on Saturday. May the best team win.

Happy New Year!

If I were the Red Sox, I would blow it all up right now

I mean seriously, why wouldn’t they? In a nutshell, here’s what has happened since I wrote how I felt oddly at home after Boston’s historically epic collapse in September of 2011. The Red Sox went out and hired an aging lame duck manager who thought the best way to inspire his team would be to pry on the fat kid. It didn’t help that the fat kid, Kevin Youkilis, held the sway of a great many of his teammates and even more so of Red Sox fans. When the organization realized that time travel is in fact not possible, they agreed that the only viable solution to satisfy all parties was to let Kevin embark on the next stage of his baseball career. The move worked, sort of. The kid that took his place wasn’t half-bad and the Red Sox played marginally well over the next few weeks, and by marginally, I mean the mathematic possibility of winning the division existed and we were already looking at wild card standings in early July (and we knew we weren’t supposed to be doing that so early, but we did it anyway).

Worst record in 46 years? No problem!

The Red Sox won their final four games in July, which was a stark change to the 8-14 record they had amassed up to that point in the month. The other thing that changed was that the organization decided to send three starting players and a huge hunk of change to LA in the form of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett (the first two being the biggest acquisitions made in the previous 2 years, and the third being the “ace” of the pitching staff). The move was applauded by many, myself included, and was generally regarded as the Red Sox closing the lab book on the “we’re going to try and overpay for aging free agents who are over the hill even though we always said we were never going to do this” experiment. It also ensured a few other things; the Red Sox would finish last in the division for the first time, multiple “hasn’t lost this many since” marks were in view (they were broken), and Bobby Valentine would not manage the team for more than 1 season.

And while the blockbuster trade to the Dodgers didn’t ensure this, it still likely means that the Red Sox will stay out of the competition for the AL East and the pennant for the next 6-8 years, given the fact that the Yankees will always be able to out-overpay us and everyone else (thereby being virtually the only team in the MLB who can succeed with this strategy), the return of the Baltimore Orioles to relevance, and the innate ability of any Joe Maddon team to be competitive. I could be over (perhaps under?) estimating how long this lull will be, but I feel confident it will happen.

That’s why I would blow the whole thing up if I were the Red Sox. Here’s what I would do (or would have done): first I resign Ellsbury and Ortiz and spend zero other dollars in the off season. Why? Both of these players are beloved in Boston and are guaranteed to keep people in the seats and watching on TV. I sit down and call Jon Lester’s agent and give him the most absurd contract extension known to man. The first thing the agent says is “Even I know Jon Lester doesn’t deserve this.” And then I say, “whatever dude it’s a good deal, just take it.” Why do I do this? Well, for one, as much as the guy drives me crazy, he’s not a terrible pitcher. I mean, why TV announcers have been obsessed for 3 years in calling him an “ace” or “Boston’s second ace” is beyond me. But a starting lefty is a good thing, and Lester’s above average at that. If he can keep his cutter down, I strongly believe he can shut down any lineup in the league. The other thing is that Lester appears to be the primary beneficiary of Josh Beckett’s departure on the pitching staff. After the trade, Lester posted a 3.79 ERA to close out the season, a far cry from the 5.49 mark he had up to that point. He just seemed like a different person, and pitched like one too. 

More importantly, like Ellsbury and Ortiz, he’s a big fan favorite in Boston due to his presence on the team before 2011 (like the others), his pale Irish red head look that has a certain sway in these parts, and his truly humbling accomplishment of overcoming cancer and still being a professional athlete. Lastly, though it’s also a bit premature (and I let him know the timing is his call), I tell Dustin Pedroia to write a figure down on a piece of paper and let him know I will pay him that until he decides to retire. As an aside, I let Clay Buchholz know of my intentions to keep him beyond his current contract (signed through 2015) and also Jarrod Saltalamacchia because he’s another good fan favorite, seems to have a little knack for the clutch, and is an above average defensive catcher who can hit (which is somehow still really hard to find).

So to summarize, unless Lester and Pedroia want their extensions now, I don’t spend another dollar on a free agent this offseason. That’s blowing it up. But I’m blowing it up insofar as the belief that spending 80-90 million on slightly above average replacements is far better in the long run than giving whatever you’ve got in the farm system a shot at unprecedented early exposure to big league pitchers / hitters. Look, I’m not going full Jeffrey Loria here. I’m not going to actually destroy the entire team to make more money. I’m simply conceding the truth that teams, for the most part, have natural cycles of success and failure not unlike the ebb and flow of capitalist markets. With that in mind, I’m giving my current prospects a unique chance and hey, who knows, maybe one of them pans out well above expectations. In addition, I’m doing things like not spending $49 million on players like Johnny Gomes and Mike Napoli who despite being better than the other guy I can put in their place aren’t going to help me in 5 years.

I’ve at least got a core of players who are not only talented, but enough to keeps fans in the seats and allow them to have at least a partial belief that the organization wants to win championships. Again, I’m not Jeffrey Loria. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that my team probably isn’t that good but it’s OK. I’m taking the 5ish years of improved draft position as a consolation. I understand that this means much less in baseball than it does in other sports (Colts anybody?), but 5 years of drafting in the top 10 (as opposed to the last 10) has to have a compounding effect, right? At the very least, your overall chances of landing a star or two are increased dramatically. When done right, these 5 years can take you from laughingstock to veritable contender – just ask the Washington Nationals.

And since I know finding my Stephen Strasburg is far less likely to happen than finding my Bryce Harper, I quietly assess the pitching talent across the league and patiently wait to make my move on the ace pitcher who will make my subsequent years of contention possible. And since I’ve saved so much money not paying for Gomes’ and Napoli’s, I can shell out whatever it takes to land this pitcher. And since I know I was able to afford $224.5 million on John Lackey and Carl Crawford whilst spending other precious millions on former Gomes’ and Napoli’s, I know I can go out and find some big bats to shore up the nucleus, too. Then, and only then, will I go find my patient hitters and solid defenders. I can see it now: the 2019 Red Sox making a pennant run led by Big Free Agent Pitcher A, Free Agent Bats B and C, and wily “we’ve been there before” veteran stars in Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, and Buchholz.

I don’t mean to make a mockery of the general management of a baseball team. Jeffrey Loria already did that in an unmatched fashion. I mean, I blew up my hypothetical team in the hopes providing my fans with another 5-6 years of contention a few years down the road. Jeffrey Loria blew up his team because he was like “hey, I only like money. But making money as an MLB owner is pretty boring because it’s guaranteed. I wonder if I can get my own fans to pay for a new stadium, which will net me more money, and then trade off nearly all of what people would call my team and slash my payroll, which will net me even more money. Yeah, that sounds fun.”

In all seriousness, I would love to see teams that can afford to spend a lot of money adopt the position that they don’t have to spend a lot of money. In fact, there’s enough evidence in even just the last 12 years to suggest this is what teams should be doing. A deep talent pool in the farm system will pay dividends across multiple years and via multiple outlets. It will not only increase the chances of bringing more Pedroia’s and Buchholz’s to the team, it will also increase flexibility in the free agent market and produce priceless trade chips, when the time is right. The most ironic effect of Boston’s overspending in the last 3 years has been the depletion of what was an excellent talent pool in the minors (granted, the LA trade rejuvenated it somewhat). It’s not a complete disaster, but it needs a couple drafts to be truly replenished. Given this and the current climate of the AL East, I think the Red Sox will be much better off if the go into full on rebuild mode.