If I were the Red Sox, I would blow it all up right now

I mean seriously, why wouldn’t they? In a nutshell, here’s what has happened since I wrote how I felt oddly at home after Boston’s historically epic collapse in September of 2011. The Red Sox went out and hired an aging lame duck manager who thought the best way to inspire his team would be to pry on the fat kid. It didn’t help that the fat kid, Kevin Youkilis, held the sway of a great many of his teammates and even more so of Red Sox fans. When the organization realized that time travel is in fact not possible, they agreed that the only viable solution to satisfy all parties was to let Kevin embark on the next stage of his baseball career. The move worked, sort of. The kid that took his place wasn’t half-bad and the Red Sox played marginally well over the next few weeks, and by marginally, I mean the mathematic possibility of winning the division existed and we were already looking at wild card standings in early July (and we knew we weren’t supposed to be doing that so early, but we did it anyway).

Worst record in 46 years? No problem!

The Red Sox won their final four games in July, which was a stark change to the 8-14 record they had amassed up to that point in the month. The other thing that changed was that the organization decided to send three starting players and a huge hunk of change to LA in the form of Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett (the first two being the biggest acquisitions made in the previous 2 years, and the third being the “ace” of the pitching staff). The move was applauded by many, myself included, and was generally regarded as the Red Sox closing the lab book on the “we’re going to try and overpay for aging free agents who are over the hill even though we always said we were never going to do this” experiment. It also ensured a few other things; the Red Sox would finish last in the division for the first time, multiple “hasn’t lost this many since” marks were in view (they were broken), and Bobby Valentine would not manage the team for more than 1 season.

And while the blockbuster trade to the Dodgers didn’t ensure this, it still likely means that the Red Sox will stay out of the competition for the AL East and the pennant for the next 6-8 years, given the fact that the Yankees will always be able to out-overpay us and everyone else (thereby being virtually the only team in the MLB who can succeed with this strategy), the return of the Baltimore Orioles to relevance, and the innate ability of any Joe Maddon team to be competitive. I could be over (perhaps under?) estimating how long this lull will be, but I feel confident it will happen.

That’s why I would blow the whole thing up if I were the Red Sox. Here’s what I would do (or would have done): first I resign Ellsbury and Ortiz and spend zero other dollars in the off season. Why? Both of these players are beloved in Boston and are guaranteed to keep people in the seats and watching on TV. I sit down and call Jon Lester’s agent and give him the most absurd contract extension known to man. The first thing the agent says is “Even I know Jon Lester doesn’t deserve this.” And then I say, “whatever dude it’s a good deal, just take it.” Why do I do this? Well, for one, as much as the guy drives me crazy, he’s not a terrible pitcher. I mean, why TV announcers have been obsessed for 3 years in calling him an “ace” or “Boston’s second ace” is beyond me. But a starting lefty is a good thing, and Lester’s above average at that. If he can keep his cutter down, I strongly believe he can shut down any lineup in the league. The other thing is that Lester appears to be the primary beneficiary of Josh Beckett’s departure on the pitching staff. After the trade, Lester posted a 3.79 ERA to close out the season, a far cry from the 5.49 mark he had up to that point. He just seemed like a different person, and pitched like one too. 

More importantly, like Ellsbury and Ortiz, he’s a big fan favorite in Boston due to his presence on the team before 2011 (like the others), his pale Irish red head look that has a certain sway in these parts, and his truly humbling accomplishment of overcoming cancer and still being a professional athlete. Lastly, though it’s also a bit premature (and I let him know the timing is his call), I tell Dustin Pedroia to write a figure down on a piece of paper and let him know I will pay him that until he decides to retire. As an aside, I let Clay Buchholz know of my intentions to keep him beyond his current contract (signed through 2015) and also Jarrod Saltalamacchia because he’s another good fan favorite, seems to have a little knack for the clutch, and is an above average defensive catcher who can hit (which is somehow still really hard to find).

So to summarize, unless Lester and Pedroia want their extensions now, I don’t spend another dollar on a free agent this offseason. That’s blowing it up. But I’m blowing it up insofar as the belief that spending 80-90 million on slightly above average replacements is far better in the long run than giving whatever you’ve got in the farm system a shot at unprecedented early exposure to big league pitchers / hitters. Look, I’m not going full Jeffrey Loria here. I’m not going to actually destroy the entire team to make more money. I’m simply conceding the truth that teams, for the most part, have natural cycles of success and failure not unlike the ebb and flow of capitalist markets. With that in mind, I’m giving my current prospects a unique chance and hey, who knows, maybe one of them pans out well above expectations. In addition, I’m doing things like not spending $49 million on players like Johnny Gomes and Mike Napoli who despite being better than the other guy I can put in their place aren’t going to help me in 5 years.

I’ve at least got a core of players who are not only talented, but enough to keeps fans in the seats and allow them to have at least a partial belief that the organization wants to win championships. Again, I’m not Jeffrey Loria. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that my team probably isn’t that good but it’s OK. I’m taking the 5ish years of improved draft position as a consolation. I understand that this means much less in baseball than it does in other sports (Colts anybody?), but 5 years of drafting in the top 10 (as opposed to the last 10) has to have a compounding effect, right? At the very least, your overall chances of landing a star or two are increased dramatically. When done right, these 5 years can take you from laughingstock to veritable contender – just ask the Washington Nationals.

And since I know finding my Stephen Strasburg is far less likely to happen than finding my Bryce Harper, I quietly assess the pitching talent across the league and patiently wait to make my move on the ace pitcher who will make my subsequent years of contention possible. And since I’ve saved so much money not paying for Gomes’ and Napoli’s, I can shell out whatever it takes to land this pitcher. And since I know I was able to afford $224.5 million on John Lackey and Carl Crawford whilst spending other precious millions on former Gomes’ and Napoli’s, I know I can go out and find some big bats to shore up the nucleus, too. Then, and only then, will I go find my patient hitters and solid defenders. I can see it now: the 2019 Red Sox making a pennant run led by Big Free Agent Pitcher A, Free Agent Bats B and C, and wily “we’ve been there before” veteran stars in Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lester, and Buchholz.

I don’t mean to make a mockery of the general management of a baseball team. Jeffrey Loria already did that in an unmatched fashion. I mean, I blew up my hypothetical team in the hopes providing my fans with another 5-6 years of contention a few years down the road. Jeffrey Loria blew up his team because he was like “hey, I only like money. But making money as an MLB owner is pretty boring because it’s guaranteed. I wonder if I can get my own fans to pay for a new stadium, which will net me more money, and then trade off nearly all of what people would call my team and slash my payroll, which will net me even more money. Yeah, that sounds fun.”

In all seriousness, I would love to see teams that can afford to spend a lot of money adopt the position that they don’t have to spend a lot of money. In fact, there’s enough evidence in even just the last 12 years to suggest this is what teams should be doing. A deep talent pool in the farm system will pay dividends across multiple years and via multiple outlets. It will not only increase the chances of bringing more Pedroia’s and Buchholz’s to the team, it will also increase flexibility in the free agent market and produce priceless trade chips, when the time is right. The most ironic effect of Boston’s overspending in the last 3 years has been the depletion of what was an excellent talent pool in the minors (granted, the LA trade rejuvenated it somewhat). It’s not a complete disaster, but it needs a couple drafts to be truly replenished. Given this and the current climate of the AL East, I think the Red Sox will be much better off if the go into full on rebuild mode.