2011 British Open Preview and Picks

The natural coastline terrain provides a classic test of links golf.

750-1.  Those were the odds that Ben Curtis was going to win British Open at Royal St. George’s Golf Club in 2003.  An unknown PGA Tour rookie playing in his 16^th professional event, the 26-year-old Curtis defied the odds and beat out a field that included Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh in their primes.  He was the only golfer to finish under par despite having never played the course before that week.  He became just the second golfer in history, joining Francis Ouimet (1913 U.S. Open), to win a major in his first attempt.  The best in the world return to Royal St. George’s next week for the 140^th meeting of golf’s oldest tournament.

It’s funny, looking back on 2003 seems like looking back a few decades, rather than eight years.  The makeup of the sport has changed considerably since then.  So, it is only natural that the layout has undergone a few notable differences.  Located in Sandwich, Kent, overlooking the North Sea, Royal St. George’s is a classic links course that tests every aspect of a good golf game.  Its proximity to the ocean and the fact that it’s in England (where I’m told it rains sometimes), gives it the “battle of the elements” potential that is a signature of this tournament.

In 2003, St. George’s played as a par-71 and measured 7,106 yards.  The course is now 105 yards longer and plays a par-70.  So many of the world’s great courses have succumbed to the combination of golf technology and a deeper field, and clearly, St. George’s is not exempt.  But it’s not just the simple numbers.  This isn’t just adding length and subtracting a number from par.  The course has strategically changed as well.  The best example is the fourth hole.  In 2003, it played as an attackable 497-yard par 5, offering players an early chance to bag a birdie and possibly an eagle.  Next week, it will play as an intimidating 495-yard par 4.  The loss of a stroke on par isn’t as drastic as the change in strategy – no longer an opportunity, the fourth hole stands as an early test to stay even.

Of course, this is only after navigating the third hole, a par 3 that will play 240 yards, some 30 yards longer than it did in 2003.  The seventh hole is still a par 5, but has been lengthened by 32 yards to 564.  The same trend applies to the rest of the changes for 2011: the par 4 ninth hole (388 to 412 yards) and the par 4 fifteenth hole (475 to 496 yards).  If the players face rain and strong winds, we could see scores like we saw in 2008 at Carnoustie, when Padraig Harrington won at three over par.  Even if conditions stay favorable, it will require consistent driving and ball striking to avoid the classic “blow up” hole.   The bunkers, undulations, and greens at St. George’s should provide quite the challenge.

There are definitely scoring opportunities.  Both of the par 5’s are relatively short. And while two of the par 3’s will play at 240+ yards, the sixth and sixteenth holes will be just 178 and 163 yards, respectively.  However, these chances will likely be mitigated by the difficulty of the par 4’s.  Only one plays less than 400 yards, while six of them play at 440+.  The Open’s website claims “the front nine is characterized by blind shots, imposing dunes and terrifying bunkers” while the back nine has less sand but “the fairways feature no fewer undulations and the greens are arguably trickier.”  It’s tough to call, especially because we don’t know what will happen with the weather.  With favorable conditions, I don’t see the winner besting Ben Curtis’ one-under finish by more than four or five strokes.  Here’s who I like going into next week.

Rory McIlroy

McIlroy with 2011 U.S. Open trophy

Currently ranked fourth in the world, McIlroy has to be the odds-on favorite to win this tournament.  Combining his starts on the European and PGA Tour’s, he has six top-10 finishes in just 10 events, while only missing one cut (Wells Fargo Championship).  Of course, this is just part of the story.  The 22-year-old had a four shot lead through 54-holes at the Masters in April before suffering a back nine meltdown, all but ruining his chances.  He finished tied for 15^th after leading the field for three straight days.  But he showed up last month at the U.S. Open determined to prove he was the real deal.  McIlroy blew away the field in a Woods-like fashion with an eight-stroke victory for his first win in 2011 and his first career major victory.

McIlroy has exceptional skills in every aspect and at the U.S. he proved that also applied to his mental game.  The pressure was on Rory to prove he could hold a Sunday lead, and he did so, but now the world’s eye is upon him.  He is far and away the favorite.  He grew up playing links courses like St. George’s.  The only negative against him coming into next week is that he has not played since winning the U.S Open, but I’m sure he’s been getting ready.  If he can match his driving accuracy and ball striking from Congressional, he might blast ahead of the field again.

Lee Westwood

Can this Brit finally do it?

Westwood is having a solid 2011 season.  He is currently ranked second in the world, though he held the top spot for a few weeks earlier in the year.  The Brit has bagged wins at the Indonesian Masters (Asian Tour) and the Ballantine’s Championship on the European Tour.  He finished tied for 11^th at the Masters in April and tied for 3^rd in the U.S. Open last month.  He has always been a solid contender in the majors, which is why he currently carries the “Phil Mickelson Award” for best player that has never won a major.

Of course, Mickelson was too talented to hold that title forever, and eventually he went on to win four majors.  Westwood continually has great showings in the majors, but just has never been able to push through to victory.  I think the British Open is the one where he can do so.  He finished in second place last year at St. Andrew’s.  His game naturally fits on the links course and he has the power to shorten the long holes at St. George’s.  His putter is what has failed him in the past, so if he can stay consistent on the greens, he’s got a great chance of winning.  Most of all, he comes in hot.  His worst finish in any event since April is tied for eleventh.

Nick Watney

Watney seeks his first major title as well.

This Sacramento native is having a superb season.  Currently ranked tenth in the world, Watney has eight top-10s, including two victories (WGC-Cadillac Championship, AT&T National) in 14 PGA Tour events.  He has missed just two cuts.  With his win last week, he moved to first place in the FedEx Cup standings as well.  Under the tutelage of Butch Harmon, Watney has put together a skill set that has everything one needs to win a major championship: power, accuracy, and short game.

He has struggled in majors so far this year, but I think the courses you typically see in the British Open and PGA Championship suit his game better.  He finished tied for seventh at St. Andrew’s last year.  In the PGA Championship at Whistling Straits (also a links course) last August, he held a three shot lead after Saturday.  He too suffered from a meltdown in the final round, shooting an 81 and finishing tied for 18^th.   He’s only come back stronger and more determined.  He has shown his game translates well to a links course and certainly has what it takes to contend in this tournament.  If an American wins, I think it will be Watney.

Wild Card: Sergio Garcia

Garcia hopes to reverse this trend.

If there’s a sleeper out in the field, ready to pounce on the title if a front-runner falters in the final moments, I think it is Sergio.  After all, that is how Ben Curtis won his British Open.  The Spaniard has come so close so many times it’s staggering.  He has 16 top-ten finishes in majors, but no victories.  Of those 16, nine were in the top-5 and he’s finished second or tied for second three times.  In the 2007 British Open, he lost in a playoff to Padraig Harrington by one stroke.  The next year at the PGA Championship, he held a back nine lead on Sunday but wasn’t able to stave off a final push by Harrington, again, and lost by two strokes.

Despite having every tool in the shed to win any given tournament, Garcia has always suffered from a lack of consistency, whether it is across four days, or even within a round.  He was so battered down that in 2010, in the midst of a slump, he took a break from competitive golf.  In May, he told the media he wasn’t sure if he’d ever be good again and didn’t know if he would try to play in the U.S. Open.  But he changed his mind and earned a spot in a qualifier.  He then played well enough to finish tied for seventh.  That got him into the field at Royal St. George’s, where he finished tied for tenth place in 2003.

Can the Spaniard keep it together for four solid rounds?  That’s the real question.  Typically, there are many ups and downs on the leaderboard during a major.  If Sergio can hang around within a few strokes of the leader, he might be able to seize victory simply by playing consistently, or maybe even pulling off a back nine Sunday run.  He’s as good a wild card pick as any in the field and has experienced so much heartbreak that you have to root for him. 

Sources and Photo Credits:  PGA.com, royalstgeorges.com, opengolf.com, independent.co.uk, Getty Images