The toughest test in golf
The U.S. Open is an event I look forward to with childish giddiness every single year. Played in the middle of June, perhaps it truly signifies that summer is well underway. Maybe it’s because it often falls in line with Father’s Day. Like so many other golfers around the world, amateur and professional, my father taught me how to play. I think those things matter, but for someone like me, who is deeply obsessed with every aspect of the game, it comes down to the simple fact – and a mantra embraced by the United States Golf Association – that it is “the toughest test in golf.”
Depending on the course and weather conditions, the USGA’s goal of the winner being within one or two strokes of par is simply just that – a goal. Still the 2010 winner Graeme McDowell won at even par, as did 2005 winner Michael Campbell. But fussing with the numbers is somewhat arbitrary, after all these guys are professionals and we want to see someone make an improbable birdie on an incredibly difficult hole. What separates the U.S. from the other majors is this dedication to difficulty. No matter what the winner finishes at, the rough is going to be thick and cut high, the fairways are going to be narrow, the holes are going to be long, and the greens will be hilly and fast.
This year the tournament will be held at Congressional Country Club’s Blue Course. In order to meet USGA standards, the course had to be tweaked. Rees Jones, son of legendary golf architect Robert Trent Jones, accomplished this feat with a few strokes of subtle genius. The USGA, and the PGA Tour for that matter, have one large pet peeve and that’s a course with a closing par-3. It’s anticlimactic. They want a closing hole where a player must pull out driver and put a ball in the fairway. Jones converted the old par-3 18th into what is now the 10th hole. From an elevated tee, players will have to carry the water some 218 yards to the green, protected by two deep bunkers long, and one in front.
In addition to a few other minor changes, the 6th hole is now a “true risk/reward par 5,” playing at just 558 yards but forcing players to contend with water if they want to go for it. The old 17th hole is now the closing par-4 and has been lengthened to 521 yards. That should certainly fit the USGA’s criteria for a dramatic and challenging finishing hole. Previously the site of the AT&T National, don’t expect the winner to be under par by double digits, as both Tiger Woods and Anthony Kim did in 2009 and 2008, respectively. But enough about the course, who has the best chance to win? In no particular order, here’s my top five picks.
Matt Kuchar
Currently ranked 6th in the World Golf Rankings, Kuchar is simply having a brilliant season. Earning top-10 finishes in six of his first eight tournaments this season; he has finished his last two events tied for 6th and 2nd place. That gives him eight top-10s in 14 tournaments this year. In 2010, he finished with two top-10s in majors, including tied for 6th place at the U.S.
Kuchar’s game is built for this type of tournament, which is why I think he has such a great chance. He has such a sweet, smooth, and uncomplicated swing and that can go far in a tournament where there is such a high premium on making greens and fairways. He seems to have regained his putter after a brief lull and his accuracy with approach shots is as good as anyone right now.
The consistency in his game, which shows in his scores, gives him a huge advantage. This past week at the Memorial, he hung around for three rounds, all under par, and then stormed out on Sunday firing off a seven-under par 65. He smiles – a lot – and that’s the best attitude to have on the golf course. That goes against the Tiger Woods competitive strategy, but then again Rocco Mediate matched Woods in 2008 for 90 holes smiling the entire time.
Luke Donald
Not since Tony Jacklin in 1970 has a Brit won the U.S. Open, but if anybody’s primed to change that, it’s Luke Donald. First on the PGA money list, and currently the number one ranked golfer in the world, Donald has eight top-10 finishes in nine events. That’s astounding. On the European tour, he finished 2nd at the Volvo World Match Play and then won their flagship event, the BMW PGA Championship.
Donald’s game is simply on right now. Week in, week out, no one is hitting the ball more consistently. He’s always been an exceptional iron player and putter. He doesn’t mind settling for a long first putt, taking par, and getting his birdies where he knows he can. That’s the prototypical game plan at the U.S. Open. An improvement in his driving accuracy has elevated his game to the next level.
There’s arguably no other golfer in the field who will be under more pressure. He’s ranked number one, a Brit hasn’t won the U.S. in four decades, and he has never won a major himself. But he finished 4th in the Masters this year, shooting a final round 69 which included a dramatic chip-in birdie. If that’s any indication of how he’s handling pressure right now, than he could very well be celebrating his first major victory in a few weeks.
Dustin Johnson
Redemption. That’s the only thought on Dustin Johnson’s mind right now. He hasn’t been off to the year he had in 2010, but nonetheless has four top-10 finishes in 13 events in 2011. The most important of those was this past week, where he also shot a final round 65 to finish 4th in the Memorial. He’s currently ranked 9th in the world.
Johnson was set to run away with last year’s U.S. Open until he suffered from what appeared to be a complete mental breakdown. But he showed he had the ability to forget, that is, until he made yet another gaffe on the 72nd hole at the PGA Championship, grounding his club in a trampled bunker. But in the past year no one’s gone through anything like that except him. Rory McIlroy had a similar breakdown this year at that Masters, so Dustin’s got to know it can happen to anyone.
In terms of his game, he’s got it all. Consistency and accuracy is usually what wins the U.S., but power can sure help. Johnson’s got plenty of that, but he also has a creative short game and good putting, even if it’s somewhat streaky. But that can go a long way in a four-day tournament, where he could potentially go very low on a day where not many others are. Johnson has three rounds in the 60s on Sundays this year, all of them resulting in top-10 finishes. Perhaps the pressure of being the front runner did him in at Pebble last year, if he can hang around until Sunday and fire off a low score, he just might redeem his missteps from last year.
Bubba Watson
This might be more of a wild card pick, but since I chose him in the offseason as “most likely to win a major next year,” I suppose I have a fan’s duty to make my best case. Currently ranked 12th in the world, Watson has just three top-10s in 2011, but two of them were victories. He and Mark Wilson are the only multiple winners thus far this season.
Watson has every shot it takes to dominate a golf course, and then some. That’s why I think he can win any given tournament he enters. What does so many golfers in at the U.S. Open year after year are the difficulties of getting out of trouble. His sheer power significantly reduces that difficulty, as well as his ability to play a fade or a draw whenever he needs to. Long rough might not matter after a 370-yard drive. Bubba is stubborn about his strategy and this is why he drives a lot of fans (especially Nick Faldo) crazy. He will keep going for birdie, even if he puts his 2nd shot in a bunker and the normal play calls for a par scramble.
He’ll have his chances at Congressional, especially at the new par-5 6th hole. Bubba likes to play the way he wants, and this could ultimately do him in. But with that creativity, he could also pencil in a few birdies when it looked like he was going to card a bogey. Winning for him might come down to swallowing his pride and taking a par where he needs to. If he finds a groove, he might run away with this tournament.
Tiger Woods
I know what you’re thinking, but I really don’t have to argue with you. He’s won 14 majors, and that’s all that really matters. I love the majors for the same reason I love the playoffs in any other sport. These are the times when the greatest rise to the challenge and perform, regardless of any extenuating circumstances.
Obviously for Woods it comes down to his heath. He has been intentionally quiet on the subject. At a recent press conference to promote the AT&T National, Tiger challenged the media not to ask him about his injury. If they didn’t, he would donate $1 million to his charity. Of course, the first question was about his leg. I sure hope that reporter donated their salary for that day to charity, but something tells me he/she didn’t.
At this year’s Masters, Tiger showed us that he still has all the shots needed to win any tournament, including his legendary putts. He claims he hurt himself in the third round and then started off the final round shooting a 5-under 31 on the front 9. He couldn’t keep the magic going on the back, but still finished tied for 4th place, four strokes behind winner Charl Schwartzel. That was a lot better than anyone expected. There’s something about the majors that gets him to reach that next level. That’s still true even today.
He’s risen to the challenge so many times. The AT&T National is normally held at the Blue Course – it has shifted locations the last two years so Congressional could prepare for the U.S. Despite the changes, he knows the course very well. His last Tour win came there in 2009. Perhaps most importantly, he’s already sacrificed his health and the remainder of a season once to win a major, this very tournament. We all remember his exclamations of pain after shots, his wincing as he climbed out of bunkers, as he hobbled to victory in 2008 at Torrey Pines, his last win in a major. In an earlier article, I pointed out how strongly I feel this will be the year of his return. The injury throws a bone into that, but that didn’t stop Tiger before, and shouldn’t now.
***UPDATE*** 6/7/11 2:59 PM
Tiger Woods has announced that he will not be able to play in the U.S. Open this year. Apparently, his leg injury needs further recovery. Well, there goes my whole analysis from above. Hopefully he'll be ready to go by the British Open and healthy enough to play in the PGA Championship. He wants to be ready for his tournament, the AT&T National. I'd rather he save himself for the chance to bag a major this year.
However, I will then put Steve Stricker up in my top 5 candidates. The Strickster looked more than on top of his game at Memorial last weekend. He's currently ranked 4th in the world, the top ranked American right ahead of Lefty. Coming off a multiple win season in 2010, Stricker has continued his high level of play this year. In 10 events so far, he's finished outside the top-20 only twice, with four top-10s, including his win last week. He appears to be getting better with age and he has the right type of strategy to win a tournament like the U.S. Open. He's never won a major, but the way he won the Memorial could put him in the right mindset to carry over to Congressional. Stricker has always struggled with the back 9 at Muirfield, and did again last week, but knowing that he absolutely lit up the front 9 and got the strokes he needed there to pull off the one shot victory.
Runner-Ups to my top 5: K.J. Choi, Nick Watney, Adam Scott, Geoff Ogilvy,Steve Stricker, Phil Mickelson
***UPDATE*** 6/7/11 2:59 PM
Tiger Woods has announced that he will not be able to play in the U.S. Open this year. Apparently, his leg injury needs further recovery. Well, there goes my whole analysis from above. Hopefully he'll be ready to go by the British Open and healthy enough to play in the PGA Championship. He wants to be ready for his tournament, the AT&T National. I'd rather he save himself for the chance to bag a major this year.
However, I will then put Steve Stricker up in my top 5 candidates. The Strickster looked more than on top of his game at Memorial last weekend. He's currently ranked 4th in the world, the top ranked American right ahead of Lefty. Coming off a multiple win season in 2010, Stricker has continued his high level of play this year. In 10 events so far, he's finished outside the top-20 only twice, with four top-10s, including his win last week. He appears to be getting better with age and he has the right type of strategy to win a tournament like the U.S. Open. He's never won a major, but the way he won the Memorial could put him in the right mindset to carry over to Congressional. Stricker has always struggled with the back 9 at Muirfield, and did again last week, but knowing that he absolutely lit up the front 9 and got the strokes he needed there to pull off the one shot victory.
Runner-Ups to my top 5: K.J. Choi, Nick Watney, Adam Scott, Geoff Ogilvy,
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