2011 Vezina Caps Historic Year for Tim Thomas

A statistical argument for the single greatest goaltending performance in history

Look at that ‘stache.  The only thing that tops Boston Bruins goaltender Tim Thomas’ post-playoff moustache and playoff beard are the numbers he put up over the course of this season.  As you can see, he’s got the hardware to prove it.  The freshly groomed Thomas showed up in Las Vegas last week to accept one more honor, the 2011 Vezina Trophy.  Along with the Conn Smythe and the Stanley Cup, that makes for quite the trophy trifecta.  Winning the Jennings would have made it the “Goalie Grand Slam,” but Thomas might have gained more satisfaction from watching Vancouver Canucks goaltenders Roberto Luongo and Cory Schneider accept that award. 

Anyone who watched Tim Thomas during the 2011 Stanley Cup playoffs, and throughout the season, knows that statistics do not speak to the kinds of saves he made night in and night out.  The type I speak of is classified as unbelievable.  This may be cliché, but a seasoned hockey watcher can always sense a goal beginning to develop.  I first picked up on this as a youth when my Dad would say “Uh-oh,” as a play began to form.  There were so many “uh-oh’s” Thomas stopped that it became staggering to count, and even more so to distinguish amongst them.

Even with the astonishing number of brilliant saves he made, the fact also remains that Thomas put up perhaps the greatest statistical season a goalie has ever had, though this comes with a caveat.  I will elaborate on this in a minute.  One thing that doesn’t need qualification is that his .9382 save percentage set the single season NHL record.  There are a number of ways to rate a goaltender’s performance over the course of a year, or a game.  By far the most telling is save percentage, as it is simply the efficiency rate that goaltenders stop shots.

Leading the league in this category in a season is a great accomplishment for any goalie, so setting the record was certainly a huge milestone for Thomas.  As he continued to put up fabulous numbers during the Bruins championship run, I began to wonder where his season would rank amongst the all-time greats.

Historical Context

The ten best Goals Against Average’s (GAA) in NHL history were posted between 1926 and 1929.  Not a great time to be a forward.  The best is George Hainsworth’s miniscule 0.92 average.  I’m going to go out on a limb and say no one is ever going to come close to that feat.  I’d say no one is going to eclipse Alex Connell’s tenth best 1.43 GAA either.  As with many other sports, changes in strategy, rules, and technology have affected the game.  At different points in history, the average number of goals per game (GPG) has been as high as eight (1944, 1982).  At other points, it has dipped below five (1935-1937, 1952-1954).

In the 1981-1982 season, when the GPG was 8.03, Denis Herron and Rick Wamsley led the league with GAA’s of 2.64 and 2.75, respectively.  Ironically enough, they were both Montreal Canadiens and shared the Jennings Trophy that year.  Herron, who played the minimum 27 games to qualify, would have ranked 27^th in the NHL this past season.  A better example would be New York Islanders’ goalie Billy Smith, who played 46 games and helped his team to the second of four consecutive Stanley Cups.  His GAA that season was 2.97, which would have put him just in front of Marty Turco for 37^th in the league this year.  If Antti Niemi reads this article, I hope he laughs at that sentence.

So, allowing that hockey has changed considerably over different periods, we have to find a historical context for Tim Thomas.  With Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux (and others), hockey continued to be a high scoring affair through the 1992-1993 season with 7.25 GPG.  The following year saw a dramatic decrease to 6.48 GPG.  It dipped below six during the 1996-1997 season and since has only been over that number once.  That was the first season after the 2004-2005 lockout, when new rules combined with an influx of skill and speed brought more scoring back in the game.  Fans fondly (sarcasm) remember the years from 1995 to 2003 as the time when “the trap” was the preferred strategy of most NHL teams.

The trap worked effectively with the combination of certain rules, some of which have been discarded or completely changed.  That was the time when you couldn’t make a pass over two lines on the ice.  You could flip the puck into the crowd if you needed a whistle.  Goalies were allowed to handle the puck anywhere on the ice, and became increasingly adept at it.  You could ice at any point with no repercussions.  While it took a whole year of having no hockey, these things were addressed and changed accordingly.  Although the first post-lockout season is the only to show a drastic difference in GPG, it has still been over 5.50 since.  That’s nearly half-a-goal per game over “the trap” low of 5.14 in 2003-2004 season.  The last time it had been close to that low was in the 1955-1956 season at 5.07 GPG.

The context to place Tim Thomas in therefore goes back to the 1993-1994 season, when the GPG dipped below seven for good (for now).  While the trap years translated into low GAA’s for goalies, we will see that it did not necessarily translate into goalies saving pucks at higher rates.  Looking back, it is also clear that when Mark Messier hoisted the 1994 Stanley Cup for the New York Rangers, it was in a lot of ways the end of an era.  Hockey changed steadily in several ways starting in the mid-90s, most of all (as with almost every other sport, thanks to specialization) in speed and skill.  Players simply got better, faster, and more skilled at all aspects of the game.  Thanks to likes of Wayne Gretzky, Michael Jordan, and Tiger Woods, fans of this era get to watch a greater number of highly skilled athletes in all sports.  If you’re a hockey fan and you disagree with me on this point, all I ask you to do is throw on a game from the early 90s.  You can’t tell me it’s not like watching today’s game in slow motion.

Everyone knows that having a great goalie doesn’t necessarily translate into success.  After all, it takes actually scoring goals to win a hockey game.  There’s no need to go into the best performances by goalies that played for teams that didn’t end up winning the Stanley Cup.  For the sake of this debate, what matters the most is judging goalies that led their teams to victory in the Stanley Cup.  You can’t win one without a great goalie, or at the very least, a great performance. 

The Vezina Trophy is awarded to the best regular season goalie based on the vote of the 30 General Managers of NHL teams.  One would be hard pressed to make an argument against the goalie that wins the Vezina and leads his team to victory in the Stanley Cup as not being the best goalie of that season.  The NHL developed these criteria for the 1981-1982 season with the creation of the Jennings Trophy (awarded to the goalies from the team that allowed the fewest goals in the season).  Remember when I pointed out Billy Smith?  In addition to helping the Islanders win the Cup, he also won the first “modern” Vezina for his regular season efforts.  Grant Fuhr accomplished the same feat in the 1987-1988 season for the Edmonton Oilers.  He had a .881 save percentage and a 3.43 GAA, good for 24^th in the league. 

In a time when the GPG was 7.43, valuable goaltending was judged more on the basis of games played and wins.  Goalies didn’t have to be as good back then, and they weren’t, as the numbers show.  But they also did not face the types of shots goalies faced all night starting in the 1990s.  They didn’t have the same equipment, either.  But across the league, players are even more skilled now.  Since Fuhr, only two more goalies have accomplished the rare Vezina + Stanley Cup feat.  Martin Brodeur did it for the New Jersey Devils in 2002-2003, and Tim Thomas did it this year.

Apologies to Dominik Hasek

By the standards I have laid out, it would seem silly that I stated earlier in the article that I was making the case for Tim Thomas having the greatest goaltending performance over the course of a season and playoffs.  I say this because in 1998-1999, Dominik Hasek of the Buffalo Sabres had one of the greatest performances in history at the age of 34.  Look at these season numbers:

GP	Starts	W-L-T	GA	GAA	SA	Saves	SPG	SO	Min.	S%
64	62	30-18-14	119	1.87	1877	1758	29.5	9	3817	.9366

Hasek broke his own save percentage record and did so while facing 29.5 shots per game (SPG).  Shot attempts/(Minutes/60).  I know, kind of confusing, but it’s pretty easy to understand, unless you’re wondering what the show 60 Minutes has to do with all of this.  In that case, I advise you to stop reading this article.  Anyway, these numbers were good enough to earn Dominik his fifth Vezina Trophy.  Not surprisingly, it is indicative of the type of goalie that would lead his team to the Stanley Cup final, which he did.

In that series, the Sabres faced a tough Dallas Stars team.  Down 2-3 in the series, Buffalo needed to win Game 6 to force a final game for all the marbles.   At the end of regulation, the score was tied at one.  After two additional periods of overtime, the score was still tied at one.  Then came a painful moment in a long history of painful moments for Buffalo sports fans.  Dallas winger Brett Hull stuffed a rebound past Hasek, while his skate was in the crease, sparking the “No goal!” controversy.  Nonetheless, his post-season numbers were impressive:

GP	Starts	W-L	GA	GAA	SA	Saves	SPG	SO	Min.	S%
19	19	13-6	36	1.77	587	551	28.9	2	1217	.9387

Had the tough break not occurred, Hasek’s 1998-1999 season would stand as the greatest year performance by a goalie.  And even though it was the third overtime, and undoubtedly everyone was tired, Dominik was very un-Hasek like in allowing that rebound and goal, even with the controversy.  But for kicks and the sake of argument lets check out his Vezina-but Cup-less numbers:

GP	Starts	W-L-T	GA	GAA	SA	Saves	SPG	SO	Min.	S%
83	81	43-24-14	155	1.85	2464	2309	29.4	11	5034	.9371

While we can feel bad for Buffalo fans, we don’t have to feel too bad for Hasek.  He would go on to win a sixth Vezina before leaving the Sabres for the Detriot Red Wings, whom he helped win the Stanley Cup in 2002 and 2008.

Martin Brodeur:  The Greatest

The title to this section requires little further elaboration.  The lifelong New Jersey Devil shares or holds 16 different NHL records, including most games, most minutes, most wins, and most shutouts.  If he hadn’t played in the same era as Hasek, he would have won more Vezinas, but even so, he has four to his credit.  Throw in three Stanley Cups and there’s little argument left: Martin Brodeur is the greatest goalie of all time.  In addition, he had a season in 2002-2003 for the ages.  At 30 years old and playing in his tenth season, he helped the Devils win the Cup, won the Vezina, and shared the Jennings Trophy with the goaltenders of the Philadelphia Flyers.  His own trifecta, I suppose.  It wasn’t the “Goalie Grand Slam” because the Jean-Sebastien Giguere was literally the only reason the Anaheim Ducks made it to the Cup finals.  He took a much-deserved Conn Smythe in defeat; nonetheless, let’s look at Brodeur’s regular season:

GP	Starts	W-L-T	GA	GAA	SA	Saves	SPG	SO	Min.	S%
73	73	41-23-9	147	2.02	1706	1559	23.4	9	4374	.9138

As is the case with many goalies, part of Brodeur’s greatness stems from the team he had playing in front of him, players like Scott Stevens.  Martin never really tested free agency and why would he?  He recognized good things when he saw them.  It was New Jersey Devils head coach Jacques Lemaire who brought the trap to the forefront of the game in 1995, implementing it effectively as the Devils beat the Detroit Red Wings in the Cup.  Defense remained the mantra in New Jersey for years to come, and of course, it’s always easy to say that when you’ve got a great goaltender. 

He started all but nine games for his team in 2002-2003 and still maintained a fraction off of two goals per game.  That’s astounding.  Clearly, he had some help doing this.  He only faced 23.4 shots per game, nearly six less than Hasek faced in his almost-best-season-ever.  Still, he led the league with 41 wins and nine shutouts.  The Devils were the second seed entering the playoffs.  Brodeur continued:

GP	Starts	W-L	GA	GAA	SA	Saves	SPG	SO	Min.	S%
24	24	16-8	41	1.65	622	581	25.0	7	1491	.9341

As the greats often do, he elevated his game throughout the playoffs.  As great as Giguere was playing for the Ducks, I remember Brodeur looking impenetrable.  He stopped everything he could see with ease. On the few great chances Anaheim got, he pulled out some miraculous saves.  Seven shutouts in 24 playoff games is remarkable.  While he only faced about two more shots per game, he increased his save percentage by over 2%.  Let’s see what it looks like when you put the Vezina season together with the successful Cup run:

GP	Starts	W-L-T	GA	GAA	SA	Saves	SPG	SO	Min.	S%
97	97	57-31-9	188	1.92	2328	2140	23.8	16	5865	.9192

Brodeur played well enough for his team to win every night.  He maintained a sub-2.00 GAA over the course of 97 games and stopped pucks just under 92% of the time.  In addition, he had 16 shutouts on the year.  Of his seven in the playoffs, three of them were in the Stanley Cup, including Game 7.  Dominik Hasek may have faced more shots and stopped pucks at a higher rate, but he wasn’t able to shut the door in 1999 when it mattered most.  Brodeur’s 2002-2003 season is surely one of the finest ever, but does it stack up with Tim Thomas’ performance from this year?

The Case for Tim Thomas

Tim’s story is one of hard work and perseverance.  He first appeared for the Boston Bruins at the age of 28 when called up for a four game stint.  He wasn’t called back until age 31 in the 2005-2006 season.  He spent the first half of that year jockeying with rookie Hannu Toivonen (who?) before locking down the starting role. He won his first Vezina at the age of 34 in 2009, but in the playoffs that year the Carolina Hurricanes bounced the Bruins in a crushing second round Game 7 overtime loss.  The following year, Thomas battled injuries that hurt his performance, meanwhile backup Tuukka Rask played exceptionally well.  Healthy again, and determined to find his game, the 36 year old Thomas put up spectacular numbers this season:

GP	Starts	W-L-OTL	GA	GAA	SA	Saves	SPG	SO	Min.	S%
57	55	35-11-9	112	2.00	1811	1699	32.3	9	3364	.9382

While he didn’t start as many games as Brodeur, he faced more shots and made more saves.  Opposing teams put a blistering 32 shots per game on Thomas and he responded by saving a shade under 94% of them, breaking Hasek’s record.  He had as many shutouts in 55 starts as Brodeur did in 73.  You could say GAA is wash, or that Brodeur gets extra points there for maintaining a two goal average while playing over 1000 more minutes.  But that pales when you consider that Thomas had to face, on average, nine more shots per game.  Essentially, he had more work to do in less time, and did it more efficiently.  Like Brodeur, he elevated his game in the playoffs:

GP	Starts	W-L	GA	GAA	SA	Saves	SPG	SO	Min.	S%
25	25	16-9	51	1.98	849	798	33.0	4	1542	.9399

Thomas did play an extra game on Brodeur, but nonetheless faced 227 more shots. He faced eight more shots per game and again stopped pucks at a higher rate.  He allowed just eight goals in the Stanley Cup final, including shutouts in Game’s 4 and 7.  His 798 playoff saves set an NHL record.  He made 238 of those in the Cup final alone, also a record.  His save percentage in the final series was 96.7%. Even though he turned 37 as the playoffs began, it didn’t stop Thomas from making a host of highlight reel stops in almost every game.  While Brodeur was an iron curtain for the Devils in 2003, it’s possible that team could have won with a slightly more porous goaltender.  The 2011 Bruins, on the other hand, would not have stood a chance if it wasn’t for the heroics of Tim Thomas.  For this reason, he became just the second American to win the Conn Smythe Trophy as the MVP of the playoffs.  Here’s what the numbers on the whole year look like:

GP	Starts	W-L-OTL	GA	GAA	SA	Saves	SPG	SO	Min.	S%
82	80	51-20-9	163	1.99	2660	2497	32.5	13	4906	.9387

Thomas faced 332 more shots than Brodeur in over 900 less minutes.  He was more efficient at stopping those pucks by roughly 2.3% while facing, on average, 8.7 more shots per game.  You’ll note that in terms of games and minutes, Thomas’ year is pretty close to Hasek’s.  But even then, Thomas still faced more shots, made more saves, and did so at a higher rate.  In terms of efficiency, the numbers put up by Tim Thomas in 2010-2011 blow Brodeur’s 2002-2003 year out of the water, even though both goalies won the Vezina and the Stanley Cup.

Brodeur was, and still is, the ultimate technician.  He made it so difficult for other teams to score because he was always in the correct position, cutting down angles and reducing the size of the net.  The way Thomas plays couldn’t be farther from that.  He plays much more by instinct and reaction.  For someone that old, it is truly remarkable.  But it also goes against the grain of goaltending strategy.  Convention would have it that Brodeur’s style is much more efficient.  His career numbers are certainly a testament to that.  Thomas has 306 less career games than Brodeur has wins.  And yet despite all of that, Tim Thomas put together a full season playing his style that trumps Brodeur’s numbers.  He proved that at his best, his game could be more efficient that Martin’s.

Given Tim’s age and the era of hockey he’s playing in, I’m not sure we’ll ever see a goalie top what he did this year.  Strictly in terms of numbers, it’s entirely possible that someone will match or beat his efficiency.  But will that someone take the Vezina and win the Cup?  In 30 years of the “modern” Vezina, only four goalies have put together winning that trophy with leading their team to victory in the Stanley Cup.  None have put together the numbers that Tim Thomas did in 2011.  Even the brand of hockey Martin Brodeur faced in 2003 wasn’t quite like the game now.  He will still go down as the best goalie of all time, but Thomas has certainly made quite the case as having the best goaltending year of all time.

Sources: ESPN.com, Wikipedia.org, NHL.com, www.hockey-reference.com,

http://www.dropyourgloves.com/Stat/LeagueGoals.aspx, Hockey Hall of Fame (hhof.com)

Photo Credit:  NHL.com (Photo by Bruce Bennett/Getty Images)

Note:  Usually, save percentage is listed in three digits.  Hockey-reference.com uses four digits in its all-time records, so I have too.