The Return to Normalcy

You know that feeling you get when things just don’t seem right? Like when you’ve been on a long trip to some foreign land, some unknown place, and the new experiences, the unfamiliarity, it all just starts to wear on you? In a way, sometimes we all play the part of Odysseus, in one form or another, and deep down we know that sooner or later, we all must come home. And in that moment – the smell of the air, the swaying of the trees, the way the road home bends and curves just the way it should – you realize you are back. No longer are you in a place where the unknown overloads the senses. It takes but one moment to realize, finally, you are home.

That moment, that return to normalcy, occurred for me as soon as the ball left the bat of Baltimore Orioles infielder Robert Andino. Every Red Sox fan had to know, deep down, that Carl Crawford wasn’t going to catch that ball. In baseball, there is a fine line between success and failure. For the 2011 Red Sox, that fine line happened to be Mr. Andino. Of course, there’s a lot more to the story than just that. In the end, we’re not supposed to be the favorite. It was better when everyone expected us to fail because it made the prospect of success all the more meaningful. Just as Odysseus set sail for Troy, so too did the Red Sox in the ninth inning of Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS when David Roberts stole the most important base in Boston’s (and maybe baseball’s) history.

Later in that game, another man named David kept the Red Sox afloat. And he did so again the following night. I remember restlessly lying in my bed at Avon Old Farms the night before Game 6. I remember wondering if there was a higher power out there and I remember asking that hypothetical higher power that if the Red Sox could win the World Series that year, I would never ask him/her/it for anything ever again. And I haven’t. While I thoroughly enjoyed watching my team win it all again in 2007, I remember thinking that it just didn’t quite matter as much. This was more than I asked for, maybe too much, and if I may quote Tim Beneski one more time, “too much of anything is too much.”

Just consider for one moment, that this particular Red Sox fan never endured Bob Gibson shutting down “The Impossible Dream.” My hopes weren’t crushed by The Big Red Machine the night after Fisk waved the ball fair. I was literally 9 weeks old when the ball trickled through Buckner’s legs. But I did see the 1999 Red Sox make an incredible comeback in the division series, only to watch the Yankees make us look like a minor league ball club. I distinctly remember Fox going to commercial break at the end of the 7^th inning of Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS on a shot of Pedro Martinez heading out for the eighth. Because I had my hopes crushed before, and like a good baseball fan I knew my history, and because I KNEW – I swear I KNEW – Pedro didn’t have gas left in the tank, I knew that the Red Sox would suffer another incredibly painstaking defeat.

So yes, even for someone of my generation, the years since 2004 have been a confusing and awkward existence. I don’t like being the favored team. As someone who grew up hating the Yankees, it’s been utterly painful to have fans of every other team in baseball lump us in the same category. I didn’t like the fact that the young generations of New England were growing up like Yankees fans. I still don’t like the fact that bandwagoners go to Fenway expecting the Sox to win. We always expected them to lose, that’s what made actually winning so great! And so just like Odysseus had to return to Ithaca, it only seems fitting that Red Sox Nation had to return to a state of lost hopes, of complete, utter, epic, tragic, no way to spin this, failure.

It’s good to be home.

A Few More Thoughts

With the season abruptly over, Red Sox fans have plenty to ponder over the next few months. Will Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, and Clay Buchholz ever be healthy and effective in the same season? Is Jarrod Saltalamacchia really the next franchise catcher? Or is it Ryan Lavarnway, and if so, will he continue to ground into double plays swinging at the first pitch with the bases loaded? Is John Lackey going to be in Red Sox uniform next year? And is he really divorcing his wife while she is battling breast cancer (Damn, dude…)? If today’s reports are true, who is going to be our manager next year?

I always thought Francona deserved to have his job for life because after all, he did what 32 other managers of the Red Sox failed to do since 1918. But I knew that wasn’t going to happen. Someone always takes the fall. More importantly, all things, especially good things, must come to an end. It seems pretty clear that Theo Epstein isn’t going anywhere. If it’s true that there has been an increasing divide between Francona and Epstein, then this is as good a time as any to say farewell. Nothing is official yet, though. Check that. It's official, Francona is no longer manager of the Red Sox. Thanks for everything, Tito, you'll be sorely missed.

I’m not just glad that the Red Sox put the finishing touches on a remarkable collapse because it brings us back to familiar territory. I’m glad because I didn’t want to have to sit through more of it. Maybe making the postseason would have provided the Sox an opportunity to turn a new leaf and start anew, but somehow I doubt it. Tampa Bay and St. Louis fought their way into October because they played like they deserved to make it. Boston, on the other hand, played like a team that felt like they weren’t as good as the nine game lead on September 2^nd indicated.

There appears to be a lack of leadership and some of Francona’s comments from yesterday’s press conference suggested as much. It seems hard to believe because the core of this team has plenty of experience and enjoyed postseason success. That being said, many of these players enjoyed success early in their careers. Sooner or later, you have to learn how to fail. Hopefully, we can consider that lesson learned. In this sense, the club might benefit greatly from a new manager that brings a new voice and personality.

It remains to be seen just how much of an issue this fitness and conditioning problem is. Rumors about this first surfaced a few weeks ago. Initially, I brushed them aside because it was just kind of hard to believe a professional organization in this era lacking or failing in this category. With the prevalence of sports science and nutrition (not to mention the amount of money some of these guys earn), it would seem more than a sin to be unprepared physically. Yet it is also clear from yesterday’s press conference that this is indeed a problem and Epstein had no qualms saying there are certain players not living up to the standards Boston wants. He would not mention names, however. Suffice it to say that this is an embarrassing but fixable problem.

If you look at Boston’s offensive statistics, it becomes clear the problems lie with the pitching staff. I don’t think the Red Sox should give up on Lackey because I think he still has the capability of being an effective mid-rotation starter. It’s hard to say, but my gut feeling is he’ll get one more shot. If Daisuke Matsuzaka can ever return to his 2007-2008 form, we may just forget about all these rotation problems. As much as I hate to blame things on injuries, not having Clay Buchholz this year really did make a big difference, even if it really didn’t show until September.

No one could have predicted Lester and Beckett going a combined 2-5 in the final month. No one knew Robert Andino, a lifetime .245 hitter, was going to have 8 hits and 9 RBIs in seven September games vs. Boston. Who really thought Dan Johnson would salvage the Rays when they were down to their last strike? You never know when the unexpected is going to happen. You can’t predict this stuff. Like my dad always says, it’s why they play the game.

Quote of the Season, Porter Sargent: “I think there were a lot of moments last night where the Red Sox could have won the game, but in the end, the problem was that it should never have come down to having to win last night.”

Happy October

Sources: baseball-reference.com, baseball-almanac.com

Bill Haas Makes A Splash, Wins 2011 FedEx Cup

The PGA Tour scored a big win yesterday with the conclusion of the fifth FedEx Cup. It will probably never be able to match the significance or meaning of winning a major championship. But the format is good, the money is there, and those two factors will undoubtedly go a long way to ensure the FedEx Cup retains relevance going forward. What more can the Tour ask for than a jam-packed leaderboard and a three-hole playoff on a Sunday afternoon?

When the last group finished, Hunter Mahan and Bill Haas stood alone at eight-under-par. While Haas had posted first, he had to have been kicking himself just a little bit. Had he not bogeyed 16 and 18 going in, he would have already won by two strokes. On the other hand, Mahan followed a birdie at 15 with two pars before making a clutch birdie putt on 18 to force the playoff. Playing the 18^th hole again, Haas hit first and went well right of the hole. It appeared the momentum was heavily in Mahan’s favor.

But he wasn’t able to take advantage. Both men made pars and moved back to the 17^th hole, a long par-4 that hugs around East Lake. Trying to avoid the water left, Haas again hit his tee shot well right, this time into a fairway bunker. Mahan striped his ball in the fairway forcing Haas to make a run at the green from the bunker. Unable to get much spin out of the sand, Haas’ ball hit the front left of the green but took a big hop and eventually settled in the water hazard. After Mahan put his ball on the green, it looked all but over.

More of Haas’ ball was out of the water than in it. I’ve seen this situation before, and while I don’t think pros practice it very often, it is certainly a scenario they know might arise. He could elect to play his ball out of the hazard, so long as he didn’t ground his club or otherwise disturb the lie. With Mahan on the green in two already, Haas had to get up and down for par to even have a chance of continuing the playoff. That’s when he hit this shot:

 

I was stunned. I’ve never seen anyone pull of this shot with that much success and certainly never in a playoff. Johnny Miller was giving him a 1-in-5 chance of landing within 15 feet. I thought it was over. All of a sudden, the momentum swung decisively back in Haas’ favor, even though Mahan still had a birdie putt to win it. But the element of the unexpected was enough to throw Hunter off. He two putted for par and Haas tapped in and the playoff carried over to 18 again.

And yet still, Hunter Mahan had a great chance to win. Haas was inaccurate again, missing long to the back fringe, but in a relatively safe spot to make par. Mahan went for the pin and missed right, landing in the bunker. He made a poor sand shot and couldn’t get up and down. Haas made a nice chip, drained the par, and avoided losing in a playoff for the third time this season. It’s the third career victory for the 29 year old and the future only looks brighter. Oh, and $1.44 million for the winner’s share plus $10 million for winning the FedEx ain’t so bad either.

For all the excitement and drama, there is still something lost on both players and fans with the FedEx Cup format. As I said before, it’s good but it’s not flawless, and at times can be very confusing. As the Tour statisticians crunched the numbers over the weekend, it became clear that whoever won would largely be determined by how well Webb Simpson played. His run of brilliance ended this week and a closing round of 73 opened the door for everyone else. But one of the first things Bill Haas asked as he walked off the 18^th green was “did I win the FedEx Cup?”

So it’s kind of weird and pretty confusing, but the basic premise is still good. You have to play well all year to compete in the playoff tournaments. You then have to win at least one of those tournaments to take the final prize. The past two FedEx champions have won by taking the Tour Championship. So as long as guys are splashing shots out of water hazards with $10 million on the line, the FedEx Cup can continue to be an entertaining and worthwhile endeavor. 

Don’t Blame Theo Now

Criticism of Boston’s GM is premature and unjustified

There’s not much to cover that hasn’t already been said or that can’t be summed up in the following two statistics. The Boston Red Sox have played 19 games in 19 days in September and have lost 14 of them, including 6 of 7 to the wild card chasing Tampa Bay Rays. It’s a story that Red Sox fans dread, yet one we know all too well. We’ve basked in the glory of 2004 and 2007. During that time the Bruins and Celtics reclaimed their status as elite teams. And in this alien world of brimming success, we’ve forgotten just how delicate winning can be, especially in baseball.

Of course, the timing of this particular slump couldn’t be worse. When the Sox started 2-10, there was little reason to freak out. 150 games is more than plenty to right the ship, and to few people’s surprise, they did. But I have never known a world in which the Red Sox quietly and easily walk away with the AL East, especially one where the Rays have proven that an eye for talent (and a great manager) can go just as far as a deep pocket. So while it seemed that the Sox were prepared to sail calm waters through September, it is painfully evident now that the Rays had the final two series with Boston circled on the calendar for weeks.

For the first time that I can ever remember, large amounts of blame and criticism have been levied against General Manager Theo Epstein. He’s receiving blame for leaving Terry Francona with a starting rotation that is backed up by rookie Kyle Weiland and left-hander Andrew Miller (combined in September they are 0-4, 25 ER in 22.2 innings). No one should have been expecting much out of these two, but lately they’ve been downright horrible. But that’s not the whole story. Five of Boston’s losses this month have been taken by the bullpen, three by set-up man Daniel Bard. The remaining five losses go to Jon Lester (2), John Lackey (2), and Tim Wakefield.

Bottom line, the timing of all things in September has been bad for the Red Sox. Josh Beckett missed a start after being pulled in the fourth inning on September 5^th, but true to his ace status, he won upon return. That was the only win Boston has against Tampa this month and fittingly represents the one game lead the Sox currently have in the loss column. Bard’s implosion also couldn’t have come at a worse time, although he has been sharp in his last two appearances after Francona gave him a public vote of confidence. Still, with five blown saves and eight losses on the year, there should be little debate over resigning closer Jonathan Papelbon in the offseason.

Boston’s offense can’t escape blame for this September slump either. Even though they lead the MLB in runs scored this season, they appear to come and go. Part of this is due to a heavy left-handed lineup, a fact made painfully obvious without a healthy Kevin Youkilis. They will explode (two 18 run games, one 14 run game in September) on one night and be non-existent the next. Hard to imagine a lineup this good being shutout 11 times by opposing pitchers this season. In four different games this month, the pitching staff held opposing teams to five or fewer runs but Boston lost. When Marco Scutaro is leading the team in RBIs for the month, you can bet something probably isn’t clicking.

When things go wrong in Boston, the natural reaction is to start pointing fingers. But we can’t blame Theo now. It’s not out of respect or loyalty. It’s because it just doesn’t make any sense. Those quick to blame Epstein for the current situation cite poor examples that don’t highlight actual holes this Red Sox team has. First and foremost amongst Theo’s alleged blunders is John Lackey. There’s no doubt he hasn’t performed like he did with the Angels. Hindsight is 20/20. No one knew that injuries would ruin Boston’s 2010 chances. If you somehow had this foresight, you might have been able to argue that Boston let Lackey go to another bidder and wait to entice Cliff Lee.

But of course you didn’t – no one did – and in the end the last thing a GM of the Boston Red Sox could ever do is look at the face of New England and say, “Let’s sacrifice an entire season so we can try to get Cliff Lee.” The Sox sorely needed another starting pitcher and Lackey was the best available. After 2004, we became win-now city, so if we’re going to have that attitude, we’re going to have to live with the John Lackey’s of the world. Faulting Theo for signing Lackey is like telling your mommy that life isn’t fair. Deal with it.

The same goes for Carl Crawford. The revolving cast of characters in the 2009 Red Sox outfield made one point immutably clear: go out and sign a good outfielder. And that’s what Theo did. Through nagging injuries and adjusting to life on the Red Sox, Crawford has continued, as far as I can tell, to play hard every night. His numbers aren’t what people expected, especially given his salary, but there is no doubt that if Boston weathers this September storm, Carl Crawford will be an invaluable asset in October. 2004 didn’t just break the Curse, it also signaled the end of an era where Red Sox nation could decry the spending habits of their rivals in New York. We’ve been overpaying for talent ever since (Edgar Renteria was just the start).

It’s not Epstein’s fault that Clay Buchholz has been sidelined with a bad back for what feels like the entire season. Coming off a breakout 2010 season (17-7, 2.33 ERA), expectations for Buchholz were understandably high. The 2011 team was supposed to steamroll opposing teams with the potent offense and a top-tier rotation headlined by Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz. But we should already know that in baseball things rarely go as planned. The best option at the deadline was a semi-healthy Erik Bedard and Epstein got him. If you’re complaining that we shouldn’t have ended up in a position where Kyle Weiland has to make crucial starts, try to imagine this year (especially the first half) without Adrian Gonzalez.

That brings me to my final point: where would we be without Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Daniel Bard, and Jonathan Papelbon? These are players drafted during Epstein’s tenure, players that subsequently were developed by the Red Sox farm system and now represent part of an invaluable core that is a large reason why the 2011 Red Sox have a shot at the post-season. The great teams always have a core of homegrown talent, and we should not forget the fact that Epstein played a huge role in turning one of the worst farm systems in the league into one of the best. So don’t lay blame on the one person who arguably has had the greatest influence in changing the Red Sox from hard luck losers into a perennial favorite. Don’t bite the hand that feeds you, especially one that feeds you two World Series titles in seven seasons.

2011 Major League Baseball Awards

There’s nothing die-hard baseball fans love more than a good subjective argument, especially one rife with statistical and historical references. Usually at least one of the league’s major awards becomes the lynchpin of an embittered debate over he who deserves and he who does not deserve. We all know the first thing that matters most is our team making the post-season, which is quickly followed by who wins the World Series. But as fans, we also know that we care immensely about the players we love. So while bickering over MVPs and the Cy Young may seem trivial, deep down we know these awards matter.

Author’s note: All statistics now through entire season. Also, you’ll probably notice I used only the statistics that I think matter when judging these awards. It’s my article. I appreciate what sabermetrics brings to the game and I thought Moneyball was a great book. Do I think the old statistics are useless, outdated, unfair? No, I just think they still matter the most. Plus, you’ll see that I used Win Above Replacement when judging position players, so there.

*By the way, SO for a batter means Strikeouts, for a starting pitcher it means Shutouts, and for a closer it means Save Opportunities. But you knew that, right?

**Also, K for a pitcher means Strikeouts. I realize this may be confusing.

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit Tigers

I figured I’d start with the easiest. There’s really no other American League pitcher who has performed at Verlander’s level in the 2011 season. Jered Weaver of the Los Angeles Angels could be in this conversation, but he has not been quite the same down the stretch as he was in the first half. Ironically, the turning point came in a highly touted matchup against Verlander in Detroit. I spoke about it here. If Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia didn’t have to face the Boston Red Sox this year, he’d probably be right up there too. Sox ace Josh Beckett has also had a stellar year, but missed starts keeps him out of this conversation. Given all that, Verlander’s numbers stand unparalleled:

Starts	W-L	ERA	IP	H	ER	BB	K	BAA	WHIP	CG	SO
34	24-5	2.40	251	174	67	57	250	.192	.092	4	2

In May, he threw his second career no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays. Two weeks later, he took a no-no to the eighth against Cleveland. He did so again in that game against Weaver and the Angels. He reached the 20-win mark in August and still has time to add to his current total. At Comerica or on the road, it hasn’t really mattered. Every fifth game, Verlander takes the hill and flat out blows opposing lineups away. Last year’s AL Cy Young sparked a big debate, but this year there is little to squabble over.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

This year’s National League Cy Young is tougher to judge, but I think when all’s said and done, the big south paw from LA deserves the award. The powerhouse Philadelphia Phillies boast a scary starting rotation that features Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, both of whom belong in this conversation. Their numbers are astonishingly similar, so Lee gets the edge for leading the MLB with six shutouts. Kershaw actually throws tonight (He won) against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have surged ahead for a 6.5 game lead in the NL West. So it’s a tough draw, but being on the sub-500 Dodgers means Kershaw is basically pitching for this award from here on out. For argument’s sake, I’ll throw both of their numbers in here:

Lee

Starts	W-L	ERA	IP	H	ER	BB	K	BAA	WHIP	CG	SO
32	17-8	2.40	232.2	197	62	42	238	.229	1.03	6	6

Kershaw

Starts	W-L	ERA	IP	H	ER	BB	K	BAA	WHIP	CG	SO
33	21-5	2.28	233.1	174	59	54	248	.207	0.98	5	2

The combination of a couple gems by Lee and a couple mediocre starts by Kershaw could change this picture completely. I’m sticking with Kershaw because like I said before, he doesn’t have a lot else to pitch for beyond bragging rights. There’s only so many times you can be in serious contention for a Cy Young, especially as we’ve entered a new era of dominant pitching across the league. The Phillies have had a post-season spot locked down for a while now. You never know with Charlie Manuel, but the conventional plan would be to limit Lee’s innings over the last two weeks, so he’s fresh for October. Currently, Kershaw holds an edge in strikeouts and opponent’s batting average, as well as innings and earned run average. He is 12-1 with 1.31 ERA since the All-Star Break, and in his last nine starts has allowed just seven earned runs over 65.2 innings pitched.

(My) Definition of a Most Valuable Player

The MVP award is often the hardest to judge and therefore typically the most hotly debated amongst baseball fans. Students of baseball history know there has never been one formula for determining this award and can all probably name a few players who deserved the MVP in a given year but did not win it. There’s been a lot of talk about Justin Verlander deserving the AL MVP, and in reality, he probably does. He’ll get votes, but I don’t think he’ll win, nor do I think he deserves to win.

My incredibly biased reason for this is because Pedro Martinez also deserved dual Cy Young/MVP honors in 1999, but only made out with one. In a symbolic gesture of “I don’t think pitchers should win MVP”, two baseball writers left Martinez off their ballots in 1999. In a recent article, Bill Simmons touched on this subject. He made a great case for Martinez then and Verlander now. His argument hinged on the fact that both pitchers had Cy Young years for post-season teams, but did so with otherwise dismal pitching staffs. (Although, I did discover that Mr. Simmons inexplicably left Bret Saberhagen out of his analysis of Boston’s 1999 staff. Saberhagen made 22 starts, going 10-6 with a 2.95 ERA). The only “awards crime” worse than this was when Pedro lost the 2002 Cy Young to Barry Zito. Don’t even get me started on that.

It is true that the ’99 Sox wouldn’t have made the post-season without Petey. It is also true that the Tigers would not be headed for October this season without Verlander. We all know the criteria for MVP changes over the years, hell sometimes year to year. But I decree right here and now that if Verlander somehow wins the AL MVP this year, the MLB shall at least award Pedro Co-MVP honors for 1999. But I don’t think that will happen, for as fickle the nature of MVP voting has been, there are still times when “statements” are made. For example, David Ortiz not winning the MVP in 2005 effectively dooms all future DHs from ever having a shot at this award. Alex Rodriguez could have been the worst third baseman in the majors, but the fact that he was actually out on the field when his team wasn’t at-bat ultimately gave him the edge (besides having a slight edge in HRs after the 7^th inning, a stat I still can’t believe was used in that year’s assesment).

I’m willing to accept that the MVP should go to an outstanding position player. In the end, I also agree that a DH posting similar numbers to a position player shouldn’t win either. But I do have a few other beliefs here too. I believe that the operative word here is “value”, which for baseball ultimately means an individual’s contributions to a team’s success. The MVP award should go to a player on a team making the post-season, no matter how well some other guy played (Alex Rodriguez 2003). Nor do I think an MVP should be awarded on the basis of some wild claim made in spring training (Jimmy Rollins 2007), especially when another player on a post-season team puts up drastically better numbers (sorry Matt Holliday). And I do think defense matters – a lot – so I’m willing to concede in the case of the 2007 NL MVP that Rollins played great at shortstop, whereas Holliday played about average in left field. (Still doesn’t matter: Rollins .296/30/94, Holliday .340/36/137)

Ok, now that I got that out of my system, let’s move on.

AL MVP: Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox Well, the Red Sox did fall off the cliff, so if I'm going to hold myself to my own standards, I guess I'll have to give my vote to Robinson Cano.

This is an incredibly tough year to decide MVP honors in the American League. While the Red Sox are threatening a tragic September collapse, I think they’ll be able to stave off the Rays/Angels and win the Wild Card. Of course, at four games back with one series left against New York, they could still win the division too. But both teams boast a few players worthy of contention for this award. Here are their numbers in ascending order:

3^rd: Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees

Games	Avg.	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	BB	SO	SB	XBH	RISP	E	FP	WAR
159	.302	28	118	.349	.533	38	96	8	81	.318	10	.987	4.6

2^nd: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

Games	Avg.	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	BB	SO	SB	XBH	RISP	E	FP	WAR
159	.307	21	91	.387	.474	86	85	26	61	.316	7	.990	6.8

Ellsbury

Games	Avg.	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	BB	SO	SB	XBH	RISP	E	FP	WAR
158	.321	32	105	.375	.552	52	98	39	83	.366	0	1.000	7.2

Bickering about second place is usually pretty silly, but I give Pedroia the edge over Cano thanks to WAR. Basically, this sabermetric statistic measures how many wins a player contributes to his team over an average replacement. Pedroia’s mark of 6.4 is good for fifth in the AL. It’s essentially a different way of rating overall productivity. Pedroia has prevented more runs by committing fewer errors while contributed more to offense by getting on base at a higher rate. But like I said, we’re talking about second place here.

Jacoby Ellsbury has had an absolutely fantastic season. After playing just 18 games in 2010, he has reemerged this year as one of the games best young stars. He’s hit more home runs this season than in his entire career. At the top of the Red Sox batting order, he’s been crucial and clutch at the same time while playing flawless defense in center field. In addition to hitting .366 with runners in scoring position, he’s also hitting .338 in Late/Close situations. Not only has he brought power (83 extra base hits), he’s also stolen 39 bases. When you add all this up, there’s little to debate. On 9/25, Ellsbury reached the 100 RBI mark and became the 57th player (first in Red Sox history) to join the 30-30 club.

NL MVP: Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers

I want very badly to give my nod to Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton, but at the end of the day, it’s pretty hard to argue with the season Ryan Braun is having for the Brewers. As the theme goes, however, we at least need to consider Upton’s numbers in context. I am sure he will receive votes, as Arizona has come out of nowhere to seize a comfortable lead in the NL West over the defending champion San Francisco Giants. Most of this is due to Arizona’s pitching, but you have to score runs to win too and Upton hasn’t received a ton of help from his teammates (Miguel Montero .282/18/86, Chris Young .236/20/71 are closest)

Upton

G	Avg.	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	BB	SO	SB	XBH	RISP	E	FP	WAR
159	.289	31	88	.369	.529	59	126	21	75	.239	13	.964	4.1

Braun

G	Avg.	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	BB	SO	SB	XBH	RISP	E	FP	WAR
150	.332	33	111	.397	.597	58	93	33	77	.351	1	.996	7.7

It’s pretty clear that Braun deserves the award when you look at the numbers, but Upton should receive a strong nod. It’s only when you look at Upton’s numbers compared to his teammates (and the fact that Arizona is October-bound, which earlier I said was necessary) that he stands as a strong candidate. Braun’s numbers are outstanding, but he also has the likes of Prince Fielder hitting with him in Milwaukee’s lineup. His 7.7 WAR is second in the NL. Like Ellsbury, he’s provided the Brewers with power in the form of home runs and extra base hits, clutch hitting, and speed on the base paths. He’s been a complete, clutch player and fully deserves this year’s NL MVP honors.

AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

I know every Yankees fan probably thinks that Ivan Nova deserves this award, but they’re wrong. And they should know they’re wrong because the guy that does plays in the same division. Hellickson has put up fantastic numbers for a rookie starting pitcher:

Starts	W-L	ERA	IP	H	ER	BB	K	BAA	WHIP	CG	SO
29	13-10	2.95	189	146	62	72	117	.210	1.15	2	1

After Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young last year with a 13-12 record, it became official that wins are a biased statistic, but if it’s at all still relevant, it should be noted that four of Hellickson’s losses have come in games where he pitched six or more innings and allowed two or fewer runs. Nova has allowed more runs and hits in fewer innings, so basically if Hellickson was a Yankee he’d be closer to 18-4. Regardless, whenever a rookie starter puts up these numbers you have to give him ROY honors, hands down, no matter what.

NL Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel, Closer, Atlanta Braves

Not really much of a debate in the National League either and I just love the fact that a pitcher from both leagues could (should) win ROY. I don’t need to launch into much analysis here, except to note that Kimbrel set the Major League record for saves by a rookie. I suppose I should also give a shout out to his teammate Freddie Freeman (.282/21/76, .996 FP) who probably would be taking this award if not for Craig. Here’s his numbers though:

G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	WHIP	S	SO
79	4-3	2.10	77	48	18	32	127	3	1.04	46	54

These are damn fine numbers for a closer, much less a rookie. Statistically speaking, Kimbrel would be in contention for the “Closer of the Year” award too, if such an award existed. Detroit’s Jose Valverde has saved 47 games in 47 opportunities and Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon has some pretty impressive numbers too (10 BB, 87 K, 31/34). The number that strikes me the most from Kimbrel’s stats is the one home run surrendered. Impressive, even if he has blown 8 saves. Either way, he definitely deserves the NL Rookie of the Year. (Oops! Kimbrel has surrendered twice as many home runs (2) in his last two outings as he did in his first 75. You can blame that one on me.)

Let the arguments begin!

Sources: MLB.com, baseball-reference.com, ESPN.com