Don’t Blame Theo Now

Criticism of Boston’s GM is premature and unjustified

There’s not much to cover that hasn’t already been said or that can’t be summed up in the following two statistics. The Boston Red Sox have played 19 games in 19 days in September and have lost 14 of them, including 6 of 7 to the wild card chasing Tampa Bay Rays. It’s a story that Red Sox fans dread, yet one we know all too well. We’ve basked in the glory of 2004 and 2007. During that time the Bruins and Celtics reclaimed their status as elite teams. And in this alien world of brimming success, we’ve forgotten just how delicate winning can be, especially in baseball.

Of course, the timing of this particular slump couldn’t be worse. When the Sox started 2-10, there was little reason to freak out. 150 games is more than plenty to right the ship, and to few people’s surprise, they did. But I have never known a world in which the Red Sox quietly and easily walk away with the AL East, especially one where the Rays have proven that an eye for talent (and a great manager) can go just as far as a deep pocket. So while it seemed that the Sox were prepared to sail calm waters through September, it is painfully evident now that the Rays had the final two series with Boston circled on the calendar for weeks.

For the first time that I can ever remember, large amounts of blame and criticism have been levied against General Manager Theo Epstein. He’s receiving blame for leaving Terry Francona with a starting rotation that is backed up by rookie Kyle Weiland and left-hander Andrew Miller (combined in September they are 0-4, 25 ER in 22.2 innings). No one should have been expecting much out of these two, but lately they’ve been downright horrible. But that’s not the whole story. Five of Boston’s losses this month have been taken by the bullpen, three by set-up man Daniel Bard. The remaining five losses go to Jon Lester (2), John Lackey (2), and Tim Wakefield.

Bottom line, the timing of all things in September has been bad for the Red Sox. Josh Beckett missed a start after being pulled in the fourth inning on September 5^th, but true to his ace status, he won upon return. That was the only win Boston has against Tampa this month and fittingly represents the one game lead the Sox currently have in the loss column. Bard’s implosion also couldn’t have come at a worse time, although he has been sharp in his last two appearances after Francona gave him a public vote of confidence. Still, with five blown saves and eight losses on the year, there should be little debate over resigning closer Jonathan Papelbon in the offseason.

Boston’s offense can’t escape blame for this September slump either. Even though they lead the MLB in runs scored this season, they appear to come and go. Part of this is due to a heavy left-handed lineup, a fact made painfully obvious without a healthy Kevin Youkilis. They will explode (two 18 run games, one 14 run game in September) on one night and be non-existent the next. Hard to imagine a lineup this good being shutout 11 times by opposing pitchers this season. In four different games this month, the pitching staff held opposing teams to five or fewer runs but Boston lost. When Marco Scutaro is leading the team in RBIs for the month, you can bet something probably isn’t clicking.

When things go wrong in Boston, the natural reaction is to start pointing fingers. But we can’t blame Theo now. It’s not out of respect or loyalty. It’s because it just doesn’t make any sense. Those quick to blame Epstein for the current situation cite poor examples that don’t highlight actual holes this Red Sox team has. First and foremost amongst Theo’s alleged blunders is John Lackey. There’s no doubt he hasn’t performed like he did with the Angels. Hindsight is 20/20. No one knew that injuries would ruin Boston’s 2010 chances. If you somehow had this foresight, you might have been able to argue that Boston let Lackey go to another bidder and wait to entice Cliff Lee.

But of course you didn’t – no one did – and in the end the last thing a GM of the Boston Red Sox could ever do is look at the face of New England and say, “Let’s sacrifice an entire season so we can try to get Cliff Lee.” The Sox sorely needed another starting pitcher and Lackey was the best available. After 2004, we became win-now city, so if we’re going to have that attitude, we’re going to have to live with the John Lackey’s of the world. Faulting Theo for signing Lackey is like telling your mommy that life isn’t fair. Deal with it.

The same goes for Carl Crawford. The revolving cast of characters in the 2009 Red Sox outfield made one point immutably clear: go out and sign a good outfielder. And that’s what Theo did. Through nagging injuries and adjusting to life on the Red Sox, Crawford has continued, as far as I can tell, to play hard every night. His numbers aren’t what people expected, especially given his salary, but there is no doubt that if Boston weathers this September storm, Carl Crawford will be an invaluable asset in October. 2004 didn’t just break the Curse, it also signaled the end of an era where Red Sox nation could decry the spending habits of their rivals in New York. We’ve been overpaying for talent ever since (Edgar Renteria was just the start).

It’s not Epstein’s fault that Clay Buchholz has been sidelined with a bad back for what feels like the entire season. Coming off a breakout 2010 season (17-7, 2.33 ERA), expectations for Buchholz were understandably high. The 2011 team was supposed to steamroll opposing teams with the potent offense and a top-tier rotation headlined by Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz. But we should already know that in baseball things rarely go as planned. The best option at the deadline was a semi-healthy Erik Bedard and Epstein got him. If you’re complaining that we shouldn’t have ended up in a position where Kyle Weiland has to make crucial starts, try to imagine this year (especially the first half) without Adrian Gonzalez.

That brings me to my final point: where would we be without Dustin Pedroia, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jon Lester, Daniel Bard, and Jonathan Papelbon? These are players drafted during Epstein’s tenure, players that subsequently were developed by the Red Sox farm system and now represent part of an invaluable core that is a large reason why the 2011 Red Sox have a shot at the post-season. The great teams always have a core of homegrown talent, and we should not forget the fact that Epstein played a huge role in turning one of the worst farm systems in the league into one of the best. So don’t lay blame on the one person who arguably has had the greatest influence in changing the Red Sox from hard luck losers into a perennial favorite. Don’t bite the hand that feeds you, especially one that feeds you two World Series titles in seven seasons.