2011 Major League Baseball Awards

There’s nothing die-hard baseball fans love more than a good subjective argument, especially one rife with statistical and historical references. Usually at least one of the league’s major awards becomes the lynchpin of an embittered debate over he who deserves and he who does not deserve. We all know the first thing that matters most is our team making the post-season, which is quickly followed by who wins the World Series. But as fans, we also know that we care immensely about the players we love. So while bickering over MVPs and the Cy Young may seem trivial, deep down we know these awards matter.

Author’s note: All statistics now through entire season. Also, you’ll probably notice I used only the statistics that I think matter when judging these awards. It’s my article. I appreciate what sabermetrics brings to the game and I thought Moneyball was a great book. Do I think the old statistics are useless, outdated, unfair? No, I just think they still matter the most. Plus, you’ll see that I used Win Above Replacement when judging position players, so there.

*By the way, SO for a batter means Strikeouts, for a starting pitcher it means Shutouts, and for a closer it means Save Opportunities. But you knew that, right?

**Also, K for a pitcher means Strikeouts. I realize this may be confusing.

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit Tigers

I figured I’d start with the easiest. There’s really no other American League pitcher who has performed at Verlander’s level in the 2011 season. Jered Weaver of the Los Angeles Angels could be in this conversation, but he has not been quite the same down the stretch as he was in the first half. Ironically, the turning point came in a highly touted matchup against Verlander in Detroit. I spoke about it here. If Yankees ace C.C. Sabathia didn’t have to face the Boston Red Sox this year, he’d probably be right up there too. Sox ace Josh Beckett has also had a stellar year, but missed starts keeps him out of this conversation. Given all that, Verlander’s numbers stand unparalleled:

Starts	W-L	ERA	IP	H	ER	BB	K	BAA	WHIP	CG	SO
34	24-5	2.40	251	174	67	57	250	.192	.092	4	2

In May, he threw his second career no-hitter against the Toronto Blue Jays. Two weeks later, he took a no-no to the eighth against Cleveland. He did so again in that game against Weaver and the Angels. He reached the 20-win mark in August and still has time to add to his current total. At Comerica or on the road, it hasn’t really mattered. Every fifth game, Verlander takes the hill and flat out blows opposing lineups away. Last year’s AL Cy Young sparked a big debate, but this year there is little to squabble over.

NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Los Angeles Dodgers

This year’s National League Cy Young is tougher to judge, but I think when all’s said and done, the big south paw from LA deserves the award. The powerhouse Philadelphia Phillies boast a scary starting rotation that features Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, both of whom belong in this conversation. Their numbers are astonishingly similar, so Lee gets the edge for leading the MLB with six shutouts. Kershaw actually throws tonight (He won) against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have surged ahead for a 6.5 game lead in the NL West. So it’s a tough draw, but being on the sub-500 Dodgers means Kershaw is basically pitching for this award from here on out. For argument’s sake, I’ll throw both of their numbers in here:

Lee

Starts	W-L	ERA	IP	H	ER	BB	K	BAA	WHIP	CG	SO
32	17-8	2.40	232.2	197	62	42	238	.229	1.03	6	6

Kershaw

Starts	W-L	ERA	IP	H	ER	BB	K	BAA	WHIP	CG	SO
33	21-5	2.28	233.1	174	59	54	248	.207	0.98	5	2

The combination of a couple gems by Lee and a couple mediocre starts by Kershaw could change this picture completely. I’m sticking with Kershaw because like I said before, he doesn’t have a lot else to pitch for beyond bragging rights. There’s only so many times you can be in serious contention for a Cy Young, especially as we’ve entered a new era of dominant pitching across the league. The Phillies have had a post-season spot locked down for a while now. You never know with Charlie Manuel, but the conventional plan would be to limit Lee’s innings over the last two weeks, so he’s fresh for October. Currently, Kershaw holds an edge in strikeouts and opponent’s batting average, as well as innings and earned run average. He is 12-1 with 1.31 ERA since the All-Star Break, and in his last nine starts has allowed just seven earned runs over 65.2 innings pitched.

(My) Definition of a Most Valuable Player

The MVP award is often the hardest to judge and therefore typically the most hotly debated amongst baseball fans. Students of baseball history know there has never been one formula for determining this award and can all probably name a few players who deserved the MVP in a given year but did not win it. There’s been a lot of talk about Justin Verlander deserving the AL MVP, and in reality, he probably does. He’ll get votes, but I don’t think he’ll win, nor do I think he deserves to win.

My incredibly biased reason for this is because Pedro Martinez also deserved dual Cy Young/MVP honors in 1999, but only made out with one. In a symbolic gesture of “I don’t think pitchers should win MVP”, two baseball writers left Martinez off their ballots in 1999. In a recent article, Bill Simmons touched on this subject. He made a great case for Martinez then and Verlander now. His argument hinged on the fact that both pitchers had Cy Young years for post-season teams, but did so with otherwise dismal pitching staffs. (Although, I did discover that Mr. Simmons inexplicably left Bret Saberhagen out of his analysis of Boston’s 1999 staff. Saberhagen made 22 starts, going 10-6 with a 2.95 ERA). The only “awards crime” worse than this was when Pedro lost the 2002 Cy Young to Barry Zito. Don’t even get me started on that.

It is true that the ’99 Sox wouldn’t have made the post-season without Petey. It is also true that the Tigers would not be headed for October this season without Verlander. We all know the criteria for MVP changes over the years, hell sometimes year to year. But I decree right here and now that if Verlander somehow wins the AL MVP this year, the MLB shall at least award Pedro Co-MVP honors for 1999. But I don’t think that will happen, for as fickle the nature of MVP voting has been, there are still times when “statements” are made. For example, David Ortiz not winning the MVP in 2005 effectively dooms all future DHs from ever having a shot at this award. Alex Rodriguez could have been the worst third baseman in the majors, but the fact that he was actually out on the field when his team wasn’t at-bat ultimately gave him the edge (besides having a slight edge in HRs after the 7^th inning, a stat I still can’t believe was used in that year’s assesment).

I’m willing to accept that the MVP should go to an outstanding position player. In the end, I also agree that a DH posting similar numbers to a position player shouldn’t win either. But I do have a few other beliefs here too. I believe that the operative word here is “value”, which for baseball ultimately means an individual’s contributions to a team’s success. The MVP award should go to a player on a team making the post-season, no matter how well some other guy played (Alex Rodriguez 2003). Nor do I think an MVP should be awarded on the basis of some wild claim made in spring training (Jimmy Rollins 2007), especially when another player on a post-season team puts up drastically better numbers (sorry Matt Holliday). And I do think defense matters – a lot – so I’m willing to concede in the case of the 2007 NL MVP that Rollins played great at shortstop, whereas Holliday played about average in left field. (Still doesn’t matter: Rollins .296/30/94, Holliday .340/36/137)

Ok, now that I got that out of my system, let’s move on.

AL MVP: Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, Boston Red Sox Well, the Red Sox did fall off the cliff, so if I'm going to hold myself to my own standards, I guess I'll have to give my vote to Robinson Cano.

This is an incredibly tough year to decide MVP honors in the American League. While the Red Sox are threatening a tragic September collapse, I think they’ll be able to stave off the Rays/Angels and win the Wild Card. Of course, at four games back with one series left against New York, they could still win the division too. But both teams boast a few players worthy of contention for this award. Here are their numbers in ascending order:

3^rd: Robinson Cano, 2B, New York Yankees

Games	Avg.	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	BB	SO	SB	XBH	RISP	E	FP	WAR
159	.302	28	118	.349	.533	38	96	8	81	.318	10	.987	4.6

2^nd: Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston Red Sox

Games	Avg.	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	BB	SO	SB	XBH	RISP	E	FP	WAR
159	.307	21	91	.387	.474	86	85	26	61	.316	7	.990	6.8

Ellsbury

Games	Avg.	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	BB	SO	SB	XBH	RISP	E	FP	WAR
158	.321	32	105	.375	.552	52	98	39	83	.366	0	1.000	7.2

Bickering about second place is usually pretty silly, but I give Pedroia the edge over Cano thanks to WAR. Basically, this sabermetric statistic measures how many wins a player contributes to his team over an average replacement. Pedroia’s mark of 6.4 is good for fifth in the AL. It’s essentially a different way of rating overall productivity. Pedroia has prevented more runs by committing fewer errors while contributed more to offense by getting on base at a higher rate. But like I said, we’re talking about second place here.

Jacoby Ellsbury has had an absolutely fantastic season. After playing just 18 games in 2010, he has reemerged this year as one of the games best young stars. He’s hit more home runs this season than in his entire career. At the top of the Red Sox batting order, he’s been crucial and clutch at the same time while playing flawless defense in center field. In addition to hitting .366 with runners in scoring position, he’s also hitting .338 in Late/Close situations. Not only has he brought power (83 extra base hits), he’s also stolen 39 bases. When you add all this up, there’s little to debate. On 9/25, Ellsbury reached the 100 RBI mark and became the 57th player (first in Red Sox history) to join the 30-30 club.

NL MVP: Ryan Braun, LF, Milwaukee Brewers

I want very badly to give my nod to Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton, but at the end of the day, it’s pretty hard to argue with the season Ryan Braun is having for the Brewers. As the theme goes, however, we at least need to consider Upton’s numbers in context. I am sure he will receive votes, as Arizona has come out of nowhere to seize a comfortable lead in the NL West over the defending champion San Francisco Giants. Most of this is due to Arizona’s pitching, but you have to score runs to win too and Upton hasn’t received a ton of help from his teammates (Miguel Montero .282/18/86, Chris Young .236/20/71 are closest)

Upton

G	Avg.	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	BB	SO	SB	XBH	RISP	E	FP	WAR
159	.289	31	88	.369	.529	59	126	21	75	.239	13	.964	4.1

Braun

G	Avg.	HR	RBI	OBP	SLG	BB	SO	SB	XBH	RISP	E	FP	WAR
150	.332	33	111	.397	.597	58	93	33	77	.351	1	.996	7.7

It’s pretty clear that Braun deserves the award when you look at the numbers, but Upton should receive a strong nod. It’s only when you look at Upton’s numbers compared to his teammates (and the fact that Arizona is October-bound, which earlier I said was necessary) that he stands as a strong candidate. Braun’s numbers are outstanding, but he also has the likes of Prince Fielder hitting with him in Milwaukee’s lineup. His 7.7 WAR is second in the NL. Like Ellsbury, he’s provided the Brewers with power in the form of home runs and extra base hits, clutch hitting, and speed on the base paths. He’s been a complete, clutch player and fully deserves this year’s NL MVP honors.

AL Rookie of the Year: Jeremy Hellickson, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays

I know every Yankees fan probably thinks that Ivan Nova deserves this award, but they’re wrong. And they should know they’re wrong because the guy that does plays in the same division. Hellickson has put up fantastic numbers for a rookie starting pitcher:

Starts	W-L	ERA	IP	H	ER	BB	K	BAA	WHIP	CG	SO
29	13-10	2.95	189	146	62	72	117	.210	1.15	2	1

After Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young last year with a 13-12 record, it became official that wins are a biased statistic, but if it’s at all still relevant, it should be noted that four of Hellickson’s losses have come in games where he pitched six or more innings and allowed two or fewer runs. Nova has allowed more runs and hits in fewer innings, so basically if Hellickson was a Yankee he’d be closer to 18-4. Regardless, whenever a rookie starter puts up these numbers you have to give him ROY honors, hands down, no matter what.

NL Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel, Closer, Atlanta Braves

Not really much of a debate in the National League either and I just love the fact that a pitcher from both leagues could (should) win ROY. I don’t need to launch into much analysis here, except to note that Kimbrel set the Major League record for saves by a rookie. I suppose I should also give a shout out to his teammate Freddie Freeman (.282/21/76, .996 FP) who probably would be taking this award if not for Craig. Here’s his numbers though:

G	W-L	ERA	IP	H	ER	BB	K	HR	WHIP	S	SO
79	4-3	2.10	77	48	18	32	127	3	1.04	46	54

These are damn fine numbers for a closer, much less a rookie. Statistically speaking, Kimbrel would be in contention for the “Closer of the Year” award too, if such an award existed. Detroit’s Jose Valverde has saved 47 games in 47 opportunities and Boston’s Jonathan Papelbon has some pretty impressive numbers too (10 BB, 87 K, 31/34). The number that strikes me the most from Kimbrel’s stats is the one home run surrendered. Impressive, even if he has blown 8 saves. Either way, he definitely deserves the NL Rookie of the Year. (Oops! Kimbrel has surrendered twice as many home runs (2) in his last two outings as he did in his first 75. You can blame that one on me.)

Let the arguments begin!

Sources: MLB.com, baseball-reference.com, ESPN.com