AP for MVP

Before we get started, let’s put in the requisite disclaimer that we’re all well aware that the MVP in the NFL, as it is in every other sport (besides hockey sometimes), is wholly biased towards offensive players. This isn’t to say defensive players aren’t able to win it, but it’s only happened twice in the history of the award and not since Lawrence Taylor in 1986. It isn’t explicitly stated that the award goes to a player on a certain side of the ball, and you might even be surprised to learn (as I was) that a kicker has taken the honor before. Suffice it so say that there is not much room in the conversation for a defensive player’s impact or statistics to be weighed against that of a quarterback or running back, the two positions who’ve claimed all but three bestowments of the award.

My vote for this year’s MVP is unequivocally Adrian Peterson.

Before we explore his accolades this season, let’s delve into the runner ups, in no particular order.

Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins

RGIII is probably the most compelling case, if only because the hype he’s received this year (thanks to playing for a team in huge market) and the dynamism with which he plays the game. His performance this year has shown flashes of elitism both throwing and running the football, and his statistics bear that out. He finished 1^st in yards per attempt and 3^rd in passer rating, but just 22^nd in passing yards and T-19^th in passing TDs. His 815 rushing yards and 7 rush TDs were more than any other QB and he lead the league overall with 6.6 yards per carry. Griffin had a very clean 20/5 TD/INT ratio, though if we consider the full package, that figure is 27/8 Total TDs/INT & Lost fumbles (as a runner).

RGIII’s case probably relies less on his overall statistics and more on the impact he had on turning a 5-11 team in 2011 to a 10-6 NFC East champion in 2012, not just as a player but a leader as well (a fact DeAngelo Hall touched on in his post-game interview last night). But let’s not forget that this was not without the help of Alfred Morris, who finished 2^nd in the league in rushing yards with 1,613 and carried his team in the decisive game last night with a 200 yard, 3 TD performance. While their rankings as a defense are worse than last year, that is purely relative. The Redskins D went from 339.8 total yards per game and 22.9 points per game in 2011 to 377.7 YPG and 24.3 PPG in 2012. That’s a difference of 37.9 yards and 1.4 points, or in other words, an extra field goal every other game. Griffin belongs in the conversation, but ultimately falls short of the competition. For a rookie, that’s pretty damn good.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers

The reigning MVP is right in the thick of it again this year and it comes as a surprise to almost nobody. Rodgers’ ascendancy to the elite category of QBs in 2010 has continued each of the past two seasons and his statistics bear that out: 1^st in passer rating, 2^nd in TDs, 5^th in yards per attempt. His efficiency has been insane, throwing for 39 TDs with just 8 picks despite being 10^th in the league in total attempts. He’s done this all while being sacked more times than any other QB in the league, and 21 more times than the next highest in the MVP conversation (Griffin III). He’s also done it with the lack of a good running game.

Upon a closer look, Green Bay’s running game isn’t as bad as the reputation it’s gotten, which is mostly due to there not being any steady featured back. But they rank 20^th in total rush yards and 25^th in rushing TDs with just 9 on the season. The only playoff team with a lower YPG mark is Atlanta. Rodgers himself is second on the team in rush yards and Green Bay has not had a single rushing performance over 100 yards in a game this year. While I do think that has something to do with losing Cedric Benson 5 games into the season, suffice it to say that Rodgers has done the majority of the offensive work by himself this year. The Packers boast one of, if not the best receiving corps in the NFL, but even so I think if anyone besides AP gets the award, it should be Rodgers.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Of course it pains me as a Patriots fan to say this, but Brady does not quite have the numbers this year to take full claim of the MVP, despite how eerily close his numbers are this year to when he last won the award in 2010. The sticking point in 2012 has been the emergence of the New England running game, but Brady had a top 10 running offense in 2010, too. In that year though, he led the league in TDs and passer rating. This year, he’s 4^th and 6^th in those categories respectively. You can’t totally discount the Patriots running game based on 2010 alone, if only because its ranking compared to the two other QBs in this conversation who primarily throw the ball is noticeably better. Stevan Ridley alone picked up over 1,200 yards and 12 TDs, while the combination of Danny Woodhead, Brandon Bolden, Shane Vereen (and Brady) accounted for an additional 900 some yards and 13 TDs.

Other than Brady falling somewhat statistically short of other candidates, what truly makes him a runner up this year is the New England defense. You read that right. This unit finished T-9^th with Houston with 20.7 PPG, finished 2^nd behind the Bears with 41 takeaways, and led the league in takeaway differential with 25. Those takeaways have directly related to Brady getting better field position, easier scores, and more comfortable leads. As we enter an era where 5,000 pass yards is likely an every year occurrence, we’ll need to find ways to differentiate QB statistics. That will likely be borne out this year if Aaron Rodgers wins the MVP despite finishing 8^th in passing yards.

Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

I’m not really going to delve too far into the numbers with ol’ Peyton, but a quick look at his stats has him 2^nd in passer rating, 3^rd in TDs, and 6^th in pass yards, which is well worthy of consideration. He led Denver to its second consecutive divisional championship as well as the number 1 overall seed in the AFC. After losing three of its first five, the Broncos have won 11 games in a row, started by a classic Manning comeback against the Chargers on Monday Night Football in Week 6. But here’s why Manning falls short. And I know I said these were in no particular order, but I’d rank RGIII and Rodgers ahead of him, calling Brady and Manning a toss-up. He is a great QB that joined a very good team.

Denver was 7-4 in 2011 once Tebow took over the starting role, having been 1-4 with Kyle Orton before that. That was in 2011 when the AFC West was a much tougher division. Oakland, San Diego, and Kansas City combined for 23 wins in 2011, but just 13 in 2012. The 2011 Broncos actually faced the toughest strength-of-schedule of all AFC playoff teams, and as we know, made it into the 2^nd round. By comparison, Manning’s Broncos have faced an SOS some 63 points easier than the Tebow/Orton Broncos did. Only Atlanta, Indianapolis, and Cincinnati have had easier schedules of all 2012 playoff teams and the Broncos were 2-3 against playoff teams. What Manning has done this year is incredible, he definitely belongs in the conversation (and I believe he deserves the Comeback award), but he falls short of the other MVP candidates.

2012 NFL MVP: Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

Rushing = 2,097 yards (131.1 YPG, 6.0 YPC, 12 TDs), Receiving = 217 yards (1 TD)

Total = 2,314 yards

Vikings Net = 5,385 yards, AP = 42.97%

Vikings Net Rushing = 2,634 yards, AP = 79.61%

Vikings Offense: 171.9 pass YPG (31^st), 164.6 rush YPG (2^nd), 336.6 total YPG (20^th)

I don’t even think this should be a question, but I’ll be honest with you when I say that I started this article after Week 16 and realized that AP doesn’t justifiably deserve the MVP without the Vikings making the playoffs, which thankfully for me they did. The last MVP awarded to a player on a non-playoff team was OJ Simpson on the 1973 Bills, or the 1973 OJ Simpsons, because there was really no one else on that team offensively besides him. Coincidentally, that was the first time a running back eclipsed the 2,000 yard mark, and he did so in just 14 games. It also was due in part to the lack of a better candidate; unless you think Roger Staubach with 2,400 pass yards and 23/15 TD/INT mark on the 10-4 Cowboys deserved it.

Simply put, the Minnesota Vikings had absolutely no chance whatsoever at making the playoffs in 2012 without Adrian Peterson. After all, isn’t that what “most valuable” is supposed to denote. He ran for over 100 yards in 10 separate games this season, 7 of those were over 150, and he went over 200 yards twice. The Vikings net yardage on offense was only 208 more than what Drew Brees threw for all season. AP has rushed for more yards than his quarterback Christian Ponder has thrown for on five separate occasions this year and the Vikings are 2-3 in those games (more on that in a moment). Of AP’s 100 yard efforts, eight of them came consecutively from Week 8 through Week 15. He’s the 7^th player in NFL history to join the 2,000 yard club and he missed Eric Dickerson’s all-time mark by just 9 yards. In yesterday’s win-or-go-home match against the Packers, AP ran for 199 yards and a touchdown (also picked up his only receiving TD of the year). In the waning seconds, he broke off a 26 yard plowing through tackles run to set up the game winning and playoff clinching field goal.

Three of the five games in which AP has rushed for more than Ponder has thrown have come since star wide receiver Percy Harvin was shut down for the season. Beyond the tight end Kyle Rudolph, this team doesn’t have much else in receiving corps. No worries: the Vikings are 6-2 since losing Harvin and AP has had games of 171, 108, 210, 154, 212, 86, and 199 rush yards in that stretch. Ponder’s high mark in that stretch was the 234 yards he threw for yesterday, and he was under 150 yards in three of those games. In terms of passer rating, it was far and away his best game of the season, but he doesn’t get there against a ball-hawking secondary without AP. In an unheralded era of gaudy passing and receiving numbers, Peterson’s 2012 season stands unprecedented.

The two losses Minnesota had on the year where Peterson’s rush total beat Ponder’s pass total were Week 9 at Seattle (AP 182 rushing, Ponder 63 passing) and Week 13 at Green Bay (AP 210, Ponder 119). Did Peterson cost his team these games? Let’s take a look:

Against Seattle, the Vikings started with the ball and AP promptly ripped of runs of 5, 74, and 1 yards for the TD and a quick 7-0 lead. He accounted for all 80 yards on the drive. Their second drive was ended by a lost fumble by Percy Harvin. The third drive started with 16 yard run from AP, but two incompletions and a sack killed it. The fourth drive sees Ponder make completions of 3 (AP), 7, 14, and 13 yards, plus a PI call on a deep ball to Harvin that went for 24. AP finished that off with a 4 yard TD run. The fifth drive saw AP pick up the majority of yardage, including runs of 24 and 15 yards to setup a 36 yard FG.

Seattle finally finds a way to stop AP in the 6^th drive where Ponder can muster just a 9 yard pass to Harvin before taking another sack to force a punt. At that point it’s 20-17 in favor of Seattle, who promptly drives down the field and makes it 27-17 on 3 yard TD run for Marshawn Lynch. The 7^th drive sees Peterson break another long one, this time for 28 yards. An unsportsmanlike penalty on Seattle puts the Vikings into their territory and a long field goal makes the game 27-20. They would get the ball back again. Peterson has a 12 yard run and 5 yard catch, but consecutive incompletions on a 2^nd and 5 forces another punt. Seattle would pick up another FG, making it 30-20, and the ninth and final drive for Minnesota would end with a Ponder interception on a deep ball from the Minnesota 25.

This is the type of game that is perfectly indicative of not only Peterson’s value to the team, but the way in which it is magnified by Ponder’s shortcomings. It’s pretty difficult to blame the guy who ran for 182 yards and 2 TDs when your QB ends the game with 63 passing yards and an interception. Not surprisingly the Week 13 game in Green Bay wasn’t much different.

Ponder does have a TD drive in this game, but AP accounted for 30 of the 75 yards gained during it and Ponder would only throw for 74 more yards on the day. Without AP’s 82 yard TD run (his long on the year) that put the Vikings up 14-10 in the 2^nd quarter, the Vikings don’t have a chance of winning this game. Up by four points to start the 2^nd half, Peterson ripped of a run of 48 yards followed by another 4 to get to the Green Bay 8 yard line, only to have Ponder throw an endzone interception to kill the drive. He would throw another pick later in the 3^rd quarter. But the Vikings would get the ball with 4 minutes left down by 9 points. Ponder did some arm work here, though AP had a catch for 10, but Blair Walsh missed the 42 yard FG attempt, and the Packers would run out the clock to end the game.

It’s not immediately intuitive to use losses to paint a picture of how valuable a player is to his team, but in this case it works very nicely. As elite players often do, Peterson has performed at an exceptional level when his team has needed him most and he’s kept them in games they probably had no business being in. The four game winning streak to end the season and push Minnesota into the playoffs saw Peterson putting the team on his back and leading them to victory. There was no better way to cap off this historic season than the run he made to win his team the game yesterday. There is no more obvious choice for MVP other than Adrian Peterson.

Playoffs start on Saturday. May the best team win.

Happy New Year!